Do we still see an (income) paradox in 2004? Let’s first look at the state level. A quick correlation between median family income and percent Republican vote shows a -0.41 pearson’s (and -.46 spearman) correlation. Both are significant. So at the state level, it looks like lower income states are voting for the Republican candidate and higher income states are voting for the Democratic candidate.
What about the individual level? Let’s look at the exit polls.
<15K 36% 63% $15-30K 41 58 $30-50K 48 51 $50-75K 55 44 $75-100K 53 46 $100-150K 56 43 $150-200K 57 43 >$200K 62 37
So it looks like the paradox is alive an kicking. So do we still believe it’s an aggregation problem? Is the paradox only alive in rural areas, but dead in urban areas? More to come…