Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Ben Jann writes,

I came across your paper on the difference between significant and non-significant results. My experience is that this misinterpretation is made in about every second talk I hear and also appears in a lot of published work.

Let me point you to an example in a prominent sociological journal. The references are:

Wu, Xiaogang and Yu Xie. 2003. “Does the Market Pay Off? Earnings Returns to Education in Urban China.” American Sociological Review 68:425-42.

and the comment

Jann, Ben. 2005. “Earnings Returns to Education in Urban China: A Note on Testing Difference among Groups.” American Sociological Review 70:860-864.