How will support for same-sex marriage change over time? One way to speculate is to break down current support across age groups, and that’s what Justin and I have done, building off of our forthcoming paper.
We plot explicit support for allowing same-sex marriage broken down by state and by age. Seven states cross the 50% mark overall as of our current estimates, but the generation gap is huge. If policy were set by state-by-state majorities of those 65 or older, none would allow same-sex marriage. If policy were set by those under 30, only 12 states would not allow-same-sex marriage.