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More on the Iranian election

Reza Esfandiari sent me this article regarding statistical analyses of the recent election in Iran. Esfandiari looks at the data and concludes that the election was fair and that the analyses contending otherwise were flawed. I haven’t look at this report in detail and offer no endorsement or criticism, just putting it out there so that anyone who might be interested can take a look themselves.

3 Comments

  1. Pejman says:

    As an Junior Statistician: I won't read this "review article"
    As an Plain Iranian: I would say, it's Bullshit.

    Disclaimer: I'm student, not Spy or whatever :D

  2. Thomas Lotze says:

    This seems to be mainly a response to the Chatham House paper, and does bring up some interesting points (such as population growth, vacation homes, and a closer look at the 2005 results). It doesn't have too much in the way of statistical analysis, though it does mention the work by Mebane, Roukema, and Scacco/Beber.

    I've also put an analysis of the digit analyses in particular (visualizations, explanations, and some follow-on analysis) up here, for anyone interested.

  3. Reza Esfandiari says:

    Hi, I am the author of the report along with a friend. We wrote it primarily as a rejoinder to Chatham House's report, but we did include the work of Mebane and others in some detail. What we do is make sense of some of the anomalies that have been identified by those who do not know Iranian politics very well.

    However,some of the tabulated data does show the kinds of swings across the provinces and also the districts which are the concern of the political scientist and statistician.