Tom Holbrook writes:

I just saw your post on the generic ballot and thought you might be interested in something I posted just the other day. My post was stimulated something Charlie cook had written a couple of weeks ago, and I hadn’t yet seen the Bafumi, Erikson, and Wlezien article. Anyway, I find that there isn’t much connection between generic ballots and midterm results this far (14 months) out from the election. My analysis doesn’t break down by in-party and out-party, and it uses data much farther out than Bafumi et al. used, so it not directly comparable to their work; but I thought you might find it interesting.