The Subtle Micro-Effects of Peacekeeping

Eric Mvukiyehe and Cyrus Samii write:

We [Mvukiyehe and Samii] use original survey data and administrative data to test a theory of the micro-level impacts of peacekeeping. The theory proposes that through the creation of local security bubbles and also through direct assistance, peacekeeping deployments contribute to economic and social revitalization that may contribute to more durable peace. This theory guides the design of current United Nations peacekeeping operations, and has been proposed as one of the explanations for peacekeeping’s well-documented association with more durable peace.

Our evidence paint a complex picture that deviates substantially from the theory. We do not find evidence for local security bubbles around deployment base areas, and we do not find that deployments were substantial contributors to local social infrastructure. In addition, we find a negative relationship between deployment basing locations and NGO contributions to social infrastructure.

Nonetheless, we find that deployments do seem to stimulate local markets, leading to better employment possibilities and substantially higher incomes. The result is something of a puzzle, suggesting that more work needs to be done on other types of direct assistance by peacekeeping contingents–e.g. the impact of mission procurement and routine spending by those associated with the mission. Also, the findings with respect to NGO activities suggest that this is an important factor that past case studies and cross-national studies have not taken into account sufficiently.

(I put in the boldface and the paragraph breaks to add some emphasis.)

At this point, I’d usually say, Here are the graphs. But there are no graphs! I’m sure the article will be even better once they’ve presented their data and model in an accessible form. In the meantime, I think these guys know what they’re doing, so if you’re interested in peacekeeping, you should probably read their article right away.

3 thoughts on “The Subtle Micro-Effects of Peacekeeping

  1. Perhaps the reason for such a finding is that deployments are made to the areas most in need and therefore are likely to be worse off than areas without deployments? In other words… a base rate problem.

  2. It's probably bad taste to comment on my own paper, but I just want to respond to John's comment by saying that we go to great lengths in the paper to line up baseline conditions. Would love to hear people's reactions to whether it is convincing.

  3. The paper seems to support an inference that a "helicopter drop of wealth effect" theory is at work, without coming out and saying so. Is that an accurate reading of it?

Comments are closed.