The news commentator did seem to be trying to point out what a couple of states had to say about the claimed relationship – almost on their own.
Some methods have been worked out for zombies to do just this!
So I grabbed the data as close as I quickly could, modified the code slightly and here’s the zombie veiw of it.
North Carolina is the bolded red curve, Idaho the bolded green curve.
Missisipi and New York are the bolded blue.
As ugly as it is this is the Bayasian marginal picture – exactly (given MCMC errror).
p.s. you will get a very confusing picture if you forget to centre the x (i.e. see chapter 4 of Gelman and Hill book)