Dave Backus writes:
We macroeconomists are thrilled with the Nobel prize for Sargent and Sims. But on causality: they spent more time showing how hard it was to identify causality than showing how to do it. And that’s a fair assessment of our field [economics]: causality is almost always in doubt.
If I were in a snarky mood, I’d say something like, Causality is always in doubt in economics . . . unless you’re talking about abortion and crime, in which case you can be absolutely certain.
But I’m in a good mood right now so I won’t say that. Instead I’ll just remark that, as a statistician, I’m positively thrilled that somebody named “Sims” received a major award.