1. I can simultaneously (a) accept that Obama has a 72 percent chance of winning and (b) say the election is too close to call
2. Michael’s a Republican, Susan’s a Democrat
3. The narcissism of the narcissism of small differences
4. Obamanomics: A Counter-counterhistory
5. Not a gaffe
6. Categories influence predictions about individual consistency
That NY Times piece (link 1) is Gelman at his best. You are doing God’s work.