Here they are:
What to think about in 2015: How can the principles of statistical quality control be applied to statistics education
Stethoscope as weapon of mass distraction
“Why continue to teach and use hypothesis testing?”
Relaxed plagiarism standards as a way to keep the tuition dollars flowing from foreign students
What to do in 2015: Your statistics diary
“Life Paths and Accomplishments of Mathematically Precocious Males and Females Four Decades Later”
Planning my class for this semester: Thinking aloud about how to move toward active learning?
A completely reasonable-sounding statement with which I strongly disagree
Wow—this is much more impressive than anything Frank Flynn ever did!
“Epidemiology and Biostatistics: competitive or complementary?”
What’s misleading about the phrase, “Statistical significance is not the same as practical significance”
Some art so far
Stan comes through . . . again!
Cross-validation, LOO and WAIC for time series
When a study fails to replicate: let’s be fair and open-minded
Lewis Richardson, father of numerical weather prediction and of fractals
“Surely our first response to the disproof of a shocking-but-surprising claim should be to be un-shocked and un-surprised, not to try to explain away the refutation”
Another benefit of bloglag
Github cheat sheet
Plans for reboot of Statistical Communication class
High risk, low return
Debate on using margin of error with non-probability panels
Patience and research
What’s the point of the margin of error?
“What then should we teach about hypothesis testing?”
Tell me what you don’t know
The (hypothetical) phase diagram of a statistical or computational method
“It is perhaps merely an accident of history that skeptics and subjectivists alike strain on the gnat of the prior distribution while swallowing the camel that is the likelihood”
About a zillion people pointed me to yesterday’s xkcd cartoon
Just in case
First day of class update
Six quick tips to improve your regression modeling
Cognitive vs. behavioral in psychology, economics, and political science
Economics/sociology phrase book
Documenting a class-participation activity
Oh, it’s so frustrating when you’re trying to help someone out, and then you realize you’re dealing with a snake.
This has nothing to do with the Super Bowl
Deciding the ultimate seminar speaker: The rules
Total survey error
Plato (1) vs. Henny Youngman
The plagiarist (not; see correction below) next door
Mark Twain (4) vs. L. Ron Hubbard
Why I keep talking about “generalizing from sample to population”
James Joyce (3) vs. Mary Baker Eddy
Statistical analysis recapitulates the development of statistical methods
Mohammad (2) vs. Ed McMahon
How a clever analysis of health survey data became transformed into bogus feel-good medical advice
Miguel de Cervantes (2) vs. Joan Crawford
Sorry, but I’m with Richard Ford on this one
Henry David Thoreau (3) vs. Charles Manson
Discussion with Steven Pinker connecting cognitive psychology research to the difficulties of writing
Marcel Duchamp (4) vs. Thomas Kinkade
In search of the elusive loop of plagiarism
Albert Camus (1) vs. Bruno Latour
When the evidence is unclear
Leonardo da Vinci (1) vs. The guy who did Piss Christ
Two Unrecognized Hall Of Fame Shortstops
Claude Levi-Strauss (4) vs. Raymond Aron
What to graph, not just how to graph it
Ed Wood (3) vs. Phyllis Schlafly
Two Unrecognized Hall Of Fame Statisticians
Alan Turing (2) vs. Yoko Ono
“Peer assessment enhances student learning”
Simone de Beauvoir (2) vs. Raymond Carver
James Watson sez: Cancer cure is coming in minus 14 years!
Chris Rock (3) vs. Jean-Jacques Rousseau
Bayesian survival analysis with horseshoe priors—in Stan!
Larry David (4) vs. Thomas Hobbes
VB-Stan: Black-box black-box variational Bayes
Jesus (1) vs. Leo Tolstoy
Another example of why centering predictors can be good idea
Mohandas Gandhi (1) vs. Stanley Kubrick
Statistical Significance – Significant Problem?
Mother Teresa (4) vs. Sun Myung Moon
Bayes and doomsday
Vincent van Gogh (3) vs. Grandma Moses
“Academics should be made accountable for exaggerations in press releases about their own work”
Philip K. Dick (2) vs. Jean Baudrillard
“Unbiasedness”: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
Martin Luther King (2) vs. Sigmund Freud
“A small but growing collection of studies suggest X” . . . huh?
Aristotle (3) vs. Stewart Lee
The axes are labeled but I don’t know what the dots represent.
Abraham (4) vs. Jane Austen
Psych journal bans significance tests; stat blogger inundated with emails
Richard Pryor (1) vs. Karl Popper
“The harm done by tests of significance” (article from 1994 in the journal, “Accident Analysis and Prevention”)
William Shakespeare (1) vs. Karl Marx
Bertrand Russell goes to the IRB
Friedrich Nietzsche (4) vs. Alan Bennett
“Precise Answers to the Wrong Questions”
Buddha (3) vs. John Updike
What hypothesis testing is all about. (Hint: It’s not what you think.)
Rembrandt van Rijn (2) vs. Bertrand Russell
One simple trick to make Stan run faster
George Carlin (2) vs. Barbara Kruger
These are the statistics papers you just have to read
Bernard-Henry Levy (3) vs. Jacques Derrida; Carlin advances
Recent challenges and developments in Bayesian modeling and computation (from a political and social science perspective)
Defaults, once set, are hard to change.
Judy Garland (4) vs. Al Sharpton; Derrida advances
“The Saturated Fat Studies: Set Up to Fail”
John Waters (1) vs. Bono; Garland advances
Statistics job opening . . . at the NBA!
First World problems: Stan edition
Interactive demonstrations for linear and Gaussian process regressions
Causal Impact from Google
Ellen Langer: expert on, and victim of, the illusion of control
The illusion of the illusion of control
“Voices from everywhere saying gently: This we praise. This we don’t.”
Transformative experiences: a discussion with L. A. Paul and Paul Bloom
Stock-and-flow and other concepts that are important in statistical modeling but typically don’t get taught to statisticians
Using y.bar to predict y: What’s that all about??
They don’t fit into their categories
“In general I think these literatures have too much focus on data analysis and not enough on data collection.”
The State of the Art in Causal Inference: Some Changes Since 1972
The 1980 Math Olympiad Program: Where are they now?
New time unit needed!
What do CERN, the ISS, and Stephen Fry have in Common?
“How the Internet Scooped Science (and What Science Still Has to Offer)”
Why I don’t use the terms “fixed” and “random” (again)
Paul Meehl continues to be the boss
Adiabatic as I wanna be: Or, how is a chess rating like classical economics?
Define first, prove later
Another disgraced primatologist . . . this time featuring “sympathetic dentists”
Imagining p<.05 triggers increased publication
The publication of one of my pet ideas: Simulation-efficient shortest probability intervals
Regression: What’s it all about? [Bayesian and otherwise]
How is ethics like logistic regression?
Enough with the replication police
There are 5 ways to get fired from Caesars: (1) theft, (2) sexual harassment, (3) running an experiment without a control group, (4) keeping a gambling addict away from the casino, and (5) chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings
A rare topical post
“Thinking about the possibility of spurious correlation isn’t a matter of liking—it should be pretty much automatic.”
This is why I’m a political scientist and not a psychologist
But when you call me Bayesian, I know I’m not the only one
The championship! Thomas Hobbes vs. Philip K. Dick
And . . . our featured 2015 seminar speaker is . . . Thomas HOBBES!!!!!
Outside pissing in
Comparison of Bayesian predictive methods for model selection
How can teachers of (large) online classes use text data from online learners?
New research in tuberculosis mapping and control
A silly little error, of the sort that I make every day
Another stylized fact bites the dust
“Another bad chart for you to criticize”
Why do we communicate probability calculations so poorly, even when we know how to do it better?
“For better or for worse, academics are fascinated by academic rankings . . .”
A message I just sent to my class
Item-response and ideal point models
Perhaps the most contextless email I’ve ever received
Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality
How do data and experiments fit into a scientific research program?
Diederik Stapel in the news, again
Go to PredictWise for forecast probabilities of events in the news
Online predictions from ipredict
The feather, the bathroom scale, and the kangaroo
Instead of worrying about multiple hypothesis correction, just fit a hierarchical model.
A message from the vice chairman of surgery at Columbia University: “Garcinia Camboja. It may be the simple solution you’ve been looking for to bust your body fat for good.”
Political Attitudes in Social Environments
Statistical significance, practical significance, and interactions
Statistical analysis on a dataset that consists of a population
What’s the most important thing in statistics that’s not in the textbooks?
Carl Morris: Man Out of Time [reflections on empirical Bayes]
Good, mediocre, and bad p-values
There are 6 ways to get rejected from PLOS: (1) theft, (2) sexual harassment, (3) running an experiment without a control group, (4) keeping a gambling addict away from the casino, (5) chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, and (6) having no male co-authors
“The general problem I have with noninformatively-derived Bayesian probabilities is that they tend to be too strong.”
Which of these classes should he take?
Forget about pdf: this looks much better, it makes all my own papers look like kids’ crayon drawings by comparison.
A causal-inference version of a statistics problem: If you fit a regression model with interactions, and the underlying process has an interaction, your coefficients won’t be directly interpretable
He’s looking for probability puzzles
In criticism of criticism of criticism
A question about physics-types models for flows in economics
What I got wrong (and right) about econometrics and unbiasedness
Social networks spread disease—but they also spread practices that reduce disease
Collaborative filtering, hierarchical modeling, and . . . speed dating
There’s No Such Thing As Unbiased Estimation. And It’s a Good Thing, Too.
There’s something about humans
“I mean, what exact buttons do I have to hit?”
The connection between varying treatment effects and the well-known optimism of published research findings
I actually think this infographic is ok
Apology to George A. Romero
Are you ready to go fishing in the data lake?
“Do we have any recommendations for priors for student_t’s degrees of freedom parameter?”
Bob Carpenter’s favorite books on GUI design and programming
New Alan Turing preprint on Arxiv!
Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks
Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn”
“In my previous post on the topic, I expressed surprise at the published claim but no skepticism”
BREAKING . . . Princeton decides to un-hire Kim Jong-Un for tenure-track assistant professorship in aeronautical engineering
Can talk therapy halve the rate of cancer recurrence? How to think about the statistical significance of this finding? Is it just another example of the garden of forking paths?
Weggy update: it just gets sadder and sadder
Creativeness is the ability to see relationships where none exist
John Lott as possible template for future career of “Bruno” Lacour
Chess + statistics + plagiarism, again!
An inundation of significance tests
Stock, flow, and two smoking regressions
What’s the worst joke you’ve ever heard?
Cracked.com > Huffington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times
John Bohannon’s chocolate-and-weight-loss hoax study actually understates the problems with standard p-value scientific practice
“With that assurance, a scientist can report his or her work to the public, and the public can trust the work.”
The greatest impediment to research progress is not impediments to research progress, it is scientists reading about impediments to research progress
All the things that don’t make it into the news
My final post on this Tony Blair thing
Cross-validation != magic
Of buggy whips and moral hazards; or, Sympathy for the Aapor
A quick one
Should you get the blood transfusion?
“History is the prediction of the present”
What to do to train to apply statistical models to political science and public policy issues
“The psychologists are getting a hard time for doing what they do, whereas people doing real harm to society are happily roaming around like free range chicken”
The posterior distribution of the likelihood ratio as a summary of evidence
“Best Linear Unbiased Prediction” is exactly like the Holy Roman Empire
Does your time as a parent make a difference?
The language of insignificance
Wikipedia is the best
Because there is no observable certainty other than the existence of thought
How tall is Kit Harrington? Stan wants to know.
Michael LaCour in 20 years
The David Brooks files: How many uncorrected mistakes does it take to be discredited?
You can crush us, you can bruise us, yes, even shoot us, but oh—not a pie chart!
In which a complete stranger offers me a bet
“When more data steer us wrong: replications with the wrong dependent measure perpetuate erroneous conclusions”
Hey, what’s up with that x-axis??
A question about race based stratification
When the counterintuitive becomes the norm, arguments get twisted out of shape
Sam Smith sings like a dream but he’s as clueless as Nicholas Wade when it comes to genetics
“Faith means belief in something concerning which doubt is theoretically possible.” — William James (again)
Interpreting posterior probabilities in the context of weakly informative priors
What’s So Fun About Fake Data?
God is in every leaf of every probability puzzle
A note from John Lott
Hey, this is what Michael Lacour should’ve done when they asked him for his data
Where does Mister P draw the line?
Humility needed in decision-making
“Why should anyone believe that? Why does it make sense to model a series of astronomical events as though they were spins of a roulette wheel in Vegas?”
“Menstrual Cycle Phase Does Not Predict Political Conservatism”
Discreteland and Continuousland
An Excel add-in for regression analysis
Evaluating the Millennium Villages Project
Hey—guess what? There really is a hot hand!
Economists betting on replication
Inauthentic leadership? Development and validation of methods-based criticism
“Physical Models of Living Systems”
Don’t do the Wilcoxon
Survey weighting and regression modeling
Awesomest media request of the year
Prior information, not prior belief
New papers on LOO/WAIC and Stan
Stan is Turing complete
Measurement is part of design
Annals of Spam
“17 Baby Names You Didn’t Know Were Totally Made Up”
Richard Feynman and the tyranny of measurement
Don’t put your whiteboard behind your projection screen
A bad definition of statistical significance from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Effective Health Care Program
BREAKING . . . Kit Harrington’s height
More gremlins: “Instead, he simply pretended the other two estimates did not exist. That is inexcusable.”
45 years ago in the sister blog
Ira Glass asks. We answer.
The 3 Stages of Busy
Ripped from the pages of a George Pelecanos novel
“We can keep debating this after 11 years, but I’m sure we all have much more pressing things to do (grants? papers? family time? attacking 11-year-old papers by former classmates? guitar practice?)”
What’s the stupidest thing the NYC Department of Education and Columbia University Teachers College did in the past decade?
“Women Respond to Nobel Laureate’s ‘Trouble With Girls’”
This sentence by Thomas Mallon would make Barry N. Malzberg spin in his grave, except that he’s still alive so it would just make him spin in his retirement
If you leave your datasets sitting out on the counter, they get moldy
The plagiarist (not; see correction below) next door strikes back: Different standards of plagiarism in different communities
Pro Publica’s new Surgeon Scorecards
How Hamiltonian Monte Carlo works
When does Bayes do the job?
The secret to making a successful conference presentation
Classifying causes of death using “verbal autopsies”
Monte Carlo and the Holy Grail
Dan Kahan doesn’t trust the Turk
Fitting a multilevel model
Neither time nor stomach
It’s hard to replicate (that is, duplicate) analyses in sociology
Wasting time reading old comment threads
Reprint of “Observational Studies” by William Cochran followed by comments by current researchers in observational studies
Hey—Don’t trust anything coming from the Tri-Valley Center for Human Potential!
Harry S. Truman, Jesus H. Christ, Roy G. Biv
Why couldn’t Breaking Bad find Mexican Mexicans?
Rockin the tabloids
Macartan Humphreys on the Worm Wars
“Soylent 1.5” < black beans and yoghurt
Aahhhhh, young people!
That was easy
Plaig! (non-Wegman edition)
We provide a service
“The belief was so strong that it trumped the evidence before them.”
“Can you change your Bayesian prior?”
Vizzy vizzy vizzy viz
New paper on psychology replication
Performing design calculations (type M and type S errors) on a routine basis?
“Another bad chart for you to criticize”
Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured
Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis
To understand the replication crisis, imagine a world in which everything was published.
USAs usannsynlige presidentkandidat.
A Psych Science reader-participation game: Name this blog post
P-values and statistical practice
Emails I never finished reading
BREAKING . . . Sepp Blatter accepted $2M payoff from Dennis Hastert
Comments on Imbens and Rubin causal inference book
Matlab/Octave and Python demos for BDA3
“Dow 36,000” guy offers an opinion on Tom Brady’s balls. The rest of us are supposed to listen?
Irwin Shaw: “I might mistrust intellectuals, but I’d mistrust nonintellectuals even more.”
Meet Teletherm, the hot new climate change statistic!
Let’s apply for some of that sweet, sweet National Sanitation Foundation funding
Being polite vs. saying what we really think
Why is this double-y-axis graph not so bad?
War, Numbers and Human Losses
Review of The Martian
Why aren’t people sharing their data and code?
Even though it’s published in a top psychology journal, she still doesn’t believe it
The aching desire for regular scientific breakthroughs
Medical decision making under uncertainty
“The frequentist case against the significance test”
Erdos bio for kids
Have weak data. But need to make decision. What to do?
“I do not agree with the view that being convinced an effect is real relieves a researcher from statistically testing it.”
What was the worst statistical communication experience you’ve ever had?
Draw your own graph!
Amtrak is evil
Annals of Spam
The Final Bug, or, Please please please please please work this time!
Fitting models with discrete parameters in Stan
How to use lasso etc. in political science?
An unconvincing analysis claiming to debunk the health benefits of moderate drinking
Hot hand explanation again
Jason Chaffetz is the Garo Yepremian of the U.S. House of Representatives, and I don’t mean that in a good way.
Comparing Waic (or loo, or any other predictive error measure)
Flamebait: “Mathiness” in economics and political science
Cognitive skills rising and falling
PMXStan: an R package to facilitate Bayesian PKPD modeling with Stan
Mindset interventions are a scalable treatment for academic underachievement — or not?
“Gallup gives up the horse race: As pollsters confront unprecedented obstacles, the biggest name in the business backs away”
Most successful blog post ever
Political advertising update
Doomed to fail: A pre-registration site for parapsychology
Latest gay gene tabloid hype
Gay gene tabloid hype update
New competition: Pick a title for Niall Ferguson’s next book!
Mars Missions are a Scam
What do you learn from p=.05? This example from Carl Morris will blow your mind.
Here’s a theoretical research project for you
Hierarchical logistic regression in Stan: The untold story
In answer to James Coyne’s question, no, I can’t make sense of this diagram.
Explaining to Gilovich about the hot hand
Ta-Nehisi Coates, David Brooks, and the “Street Code” of Journalism
It’s all about the denominator: Rajiv Sethi and Sendhil Mullainathan in a statistical debate on racial bias in police killings
What’s the probability that Daniel Murphy hits a home run tonight?
The answer to my previous question
3 reasons why you can’t always use predictive performance to choose among models
Meet the 1 doctor in America who has no opinion on whether cigarette smoking contributes to lung cancer in human beings.
Top 5 movies about scientists
Don’t miss this one: “Modern Physics from an Elementary Point of View”
Super-topical NBA post!!!
Hi-tech hoops: Characterizing the spatial structure of defensive skill in professional basketball
You won’t be able to stop staring at this original Hot Hand preprint
“How does peer review shape science?”
Are you ready for some smashmouth FOOTBALL?
2 new thoughts on Cauchy priors for logistic regression coefficients
Stop screaming already: Exaggeration of effects of fan distraction in NCAA basketball
My job here is done
“Another reminder that David Brooks is very good at being David Brooks”
The tabloids strike again
Hey—looky here! This business wants to hire a Stan expert for decision making.
Econometrics: Instrument locally, extrapolate globally
Why Retraction Watch remains necessary
Correcting statistical biases in “Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century”: We need to adjust for the increase in average age of people in the 45-54 category
Age adjustment mortality update
What happened to mortality among 45-54-year-old white non-Hispanics? It declined from 1989 to 1999, increased from 1999 to 2005, and held steady after that.
3 new priors you can’t do without, for coefficients and variance parameters in multilevel regression
You won’t believe these stunning transformations: How to parameterize hyperpriors in hierarchical models?
Pathological liars I have known
“Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research”
Death rates have been increasing for middle-aged white women, decreasing for men
Taleb’s Precautionary Principle: Should we be scared of GMOs?
Pass the popcorn
Bayesian Computing: Adventures on the Efficient Frontier
Inference from an intervention with many outcomes, not using “statistical significance”
“Should Prison Sentences Be Based On Crimes That Haven’t Been Committed Yet?”
Why is it so hard for them to acknowledge a correction?
Asking the question is the most important step
Is 8+4 less than 3? 11% of respondents say Yes!
Just Filling in the Bubbles
Pareto smoothed importance sampling and infinite variance (2nd ed)
First, second, and third order bias corrections (also, my ugly R code for the mortality-rate graphs!)
I like the Monkey Cage
Tip o’ the iceberg to ya
Benford lays down the Law
Flatten your abs with this new statistical approach to quadrature
If a study is worth a mention, it’s worth a link
Top 9 questions to ask a statistician
I already know who will be president in 2016 but I’m not telling
Beyond the median split: Splitting a predictor into 3 parts
Gary McClelland agrees with me that dichotomizing continuous variables is a bad idea. He also thinks my suggestion of dividing a variable into 3 parts is also a mistake.
“iPredict to close after Govt refuses anti-money laundering law exemption”
You’ll never believe what this girl wrote in her diary (NSFW)
Comedy book with surefire can’t-miss formula, misses
7 tips for work-life balance
How does Brad Cooper analyze hierarchical survey data with post-stratification?
Garry is 50 years old. He is a chess player who is also active in a political movement.
Rogue historian just can’t stop can’t stop copying copying copying
Why are we such a litigious society?
Questions about data transplanted in kidney study
Judea Pearl and I briefly discuss extrapolation, causal inference, and hierarchical modeling
Cannabis/IQ follow-up: Same old story
Use of Jeffreys prior in estimating climate sensitivity
Hierarchical modeling when you have only 2 groups: I still think it’s a good idea, you just need an informative prior on the group-level variation
Fun media requests
Why I decided not to enter the $100,000 global warming time-series challenge
More on prior distributions for climate sensitivity
“Baby Boomer” as an inaccurate, all-purpose insult
1 cool trick for defining conditional probability
Jökull Snæbjarnarson writes . . .
Bayesian decision analysis for the drug-approval process (NSFW)
Mars 1, This American Life 0
LaCour and Green 1, This American Life 0
Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper
Tug of War: Epic battle over data in controversial paper on chronic fatigue syndrome
A Replication in Economics: Does “Genetic Distance” to the US Predict Development?
Death of a statistician
“Once I was told to try every possible specification of a dependent variable (count, proportion, binary indicator, you name it) in a regression until I find a significant relationship. That is it, no justification for choosing one specification over another besides finding significance. . . . In another occasion I was asked to re-write a theory section of a paper to reflect an incidental finding from our analysis, so that it shows up as if we were asking a question about the incidental finding and had come up with the supported hypothesis a priori. . . .”
Rapid post-publication review
He’s skeptical about Neuroskeptic’s skepticism
“Journalistic lapses at the New York Times should, in effect, count triple”
You’ll never guess how we answer this question: “Am I doing myself a disservice by being too idealistic in a corporate environment?”
More on the PACE (chronic fatigue syndrome study) scandal
Turbulent Studies, Rocky Statistics: Publicational Consequences of Experiencing Inferential Instability
Comment of the week
There are 6 ways to get fired from Johnson & Johnson: (1) theft, (2) sexual harassment, (3) running an experiment without a control group, (4) keeping a gambling addict away from the casino, (5) chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, and (6) not covering up records of side effects of a drug you’re marketing to kids
Citation shocker: “The lifecycle of scholarly articles across fields of economic research”
Guess what today’s kids are clicking on: My presentation at the Electronic Conference on Teaching Statistics
Showdown in Vegas: When the numbers differ in the third decimal place
Definitely got nothing to do with chess IV
I’d be hard pressed to pick a top 10 or even a top 50 of these, but I guess the best were the math olympiad memoir, the Carl Morris memoir, the unfolding saga of the age-adjusted death rates, the solution to the so-called global warming time-series challenge, and of course the hot hand story.
Also the best-seminar-speaker competition. That was fun.
Best wishes for 2016!
P.S. It was fun reading all these titles again. Some of the posts seemed so recent, I was surprised they were written so many months ago.