Now nonsense isn’t new to me . . . check out this new paper by Josh Miller and Adam Sanjurjo.
Checked this out already? Hot Hands, Streaks and Coin-flips: Numerical Nonsense in the New York Times
for those that are only interested in the connection to Monty Hall, we have an image that will save time: https://twitter.com/jben0/status/684187214931087360
Heads and tails aren’t quite as interesting as goats and cars, sorry for that, but if you go to Problem 11, we have goats on bicycles.
Hey, sneaking in REM references is my speciality, buddy!
Seriously, nice paper. I was pondering the other day how people who believe climate change is some kind of liberal conspiracy manage to switch from a Hot Hand bias into the exact opposite to fit their expectations. Cold hand? That’s to say, an absolute insistence that it is just noise and not signal, by appeal to longer timescales with larger changes (neglecting the additional improbability of a major shift in planetary climate just happening along at the exact moment they need it to foil those darn commies*). Anything but a balanced view that weird coincidences happen a certain amount – but not that much. It would be so much fun to do some empirical work on this sort of perception but it’s not my field.
* – notwithstanding supernatural intervention, of course
Nice catch Robert, Andrew’s post “Now nonsense isn’t new to me” did feel a bit elusive.
What are the chances that he could find such an apt phrase within the lyrics of the “Monty” song? Will this work everytime? seems like it will.
anyhow, thanks for the nice words. I don’t have much to add on the reasoning you refer to, except to link this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motivated_reasoning
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