4 thoughts on “Monty Got a Raw Hand

  1. Hey, sneaking in REM references is my speciality, buddy!

    Seriously, nice paper. I was pondering the other day how people who believe climate change is some kind of liberal conspiracy manage to switch from a Hot Hand bias into the exact opposite to fit their expectations. Cold hand? That’s to say, an absolute insistence that it is just noise and not signal, by appeal to longer timescales with larger changes (neglecting the additional improbability of a major shift in planetary climate just happening along at the exact moment they need it to foil those darn commies*). Anything but a balanced view that weird coincidences happen a certain amount – but not that much. It would be so much fun to do some empirical work on this sort of perception but it’s not my field.

    * – notwithstanding supernatural intervention, of course

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