OK, here’s a research project for someone who’s interested in sports statistics. It’s from this comment by Paul in a recent thread:
What I would like to see (has anyone done it?) is an analysis of the performance of EPL teams that had similar pre-season odds to Leicester over the last 15-20 years or so. Even just a plot of the season points behind the champion for that year would give a better idea of just how much of an outlier Leicester was.
As Paul says, this is related to my idea of estimating low probabilities by modeling from precursor data.
So here’s a research project for you which, if successful, is guaranteed to get some attention and could even be influential in getting people to understand the idea of retrospective evaluation of prospective odds:
Step 1: Put together a dataset of points, goal differential, and pre-season betting odds from a bunch of past English soccer league seasons.
Step 2: Make some graphs.
Step 3: Fit some models.
Step 4: Make some graphs.
Do all 4 steps. And then, even if the later steps aren’t perfect, the data are out there and other people can fit their own models.