Leonardo Egidi writes:
Inspired by your world cup model I fitted in Stan a model for the Euro Cup which start today, with two Poisson distributions for the goals scored at every match by the two teams (perfect prediction for the first match!).
Here’s the model, and here are the (point) predictions:
I didn’t look at the model but at first glance I think the priors are a bit vague. Maybe it doesn’t really matter, though. Anyway, I’m glad to see that France will make it to the semifinals. (I root for France whenever the U.S. and Guatemala aren’t in the picture.)
Maybe Leo can also send along the Stan code and the data?
P.S. Just to be clear: this is not my model. Leo gets all the credit/blame.
P.P.S. Leo sent me the data and code along with the following note:
I would like to re-estimate the model for the second stage of the euro cup after the first groups results.
In euro2016.R I inserted some comments for explaining my choices. I just need to point out the following:
– The “final” model I used is euro2016Matt.stan. Here I am using some – let me say – informative priors for parameters c and d which regard the attack and the defense score. By soccer experience, I notice that over the years the best teams are likely to perform quite well in the first matches, and that is the reason for my priors with a lower bound of 0.5.
– As pointed out by someone of your readers – I already answered in your blog – there is no a system yet for deciding the winner after the regular time. Quite now, the predictions for the second stage are less reliable.