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What if NC is a tie and FL is a close win for Clinton?

On the TV they said that they were guessing that Clinton would win Florida in a close race and that North Carolina was too close to call.

Let’s run the numbers, Kremp:

> update_prob2(clinton_normal=list("NC"=c(50,2), "FL"=c(52,2)))
Pr(Clinton wins the electoral college) = 95%

That’s good news for Clinton.

What if both states are tied?

> update_prob2(clinton_normal=list("NC"=c(50,2), "FL"=c(50,2)))
Pr(Clinton wins the electoral college) = 90%

P.S. To be complete I should include all the states that were already called (KY, MA, etc.) but this would add essentially no information so I won’t bother.

OK, Ok, just to illustrate:

> update_prob2(trump_states=c("KY","IN"), clinton_states=c("IL","MA"), clinton_normal=list("NC"=c(50,2), "FL"=c(50,2)))
Pr(Clinton wins the electoral college) = 90%

You see, no change.

P.P.S. What if Florida is close but Clinton loses there?

> update_prob2(trump_states=c("FL"), clinton_normal=list("NC"=c(50,2), "FL"=c(50,1)))
Pr(Clinton wins the electoral college) = 75%
[nsim = 37716; se = 0.2%]

Her chance goes down to 75%. Still better than Trump’s 25%.

P.P.P.S. And what if NC and FL are both close but Trump wins both?

> update_prob2(trump_states=c("NC","FL"), clinton_normal=list("NC"=c(50,1), "FL"=c(50,1)))
Pr(Clinton wins the electoral college) = 65%

3 Comments

  1. John Hall says:

    Indispensable!

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