Raghu Parthasarathy writes:
You might find this interesting, an article (and related essay) on the steadily declining percentage of NIH awards going to mid-career scientists and the steadily increasing percentage going to older researchers. The key figure is below. The part that may be of particular interest to you, since you’ve written about age-adjustment in demographic work: does an analysis like this have to account for the changing demographics of the US population (which wasn’t done), or it that irrelevant since there’s no necessarily link between the age distribution of scientists and that of the society they’re drawn from? I have no idea, but I figured you might.
Most of the article is about the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute, one of the NIH institutes, but I would bet that its findings are quite general.
Jeez, what an ugly pair of graphs! Actually, I’ve seen a lot worse. These graphs are actually pretty functional. But uuuuuugly. And what’s with those R-squareds? Anyway, the news seems good to me—the crossover point seems to be happening just about when I turn 55. And I’d sure like some of that National Heart Lung and Blood Institute for Stan.