PS — sorry to put the comment here, there doesnt appear to be a comment or contact link on the case studies themselves. Maybe this would be useful?

]]>One minor comment: In the ICAR section of Mitzi’s write-up, the joint distribution is not a normal distribution (due to D-W being singular, as you point out a few lines later), and the pairwise difference formulation is off slightly — in particular, the “1/tau^{n/2}” piece outside of the exponent should have “(n-1)/2” if you only have one “spatial island” or, more generally, “(n-I)/2” if you have I spatial islands. Similarly, if you have I spatial islands, you need to have I sum-to-zero constraints (e.g., one for the contiguous US, one for Alaska, and one for Hawaii). Jim Hodges has a 2003 paper related to this in Biometrics (“On the precision of the conditionally autoregressive prior in spatial models”).

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