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Slow to update

This post is a placeholder to remind Josh Miller and me to write our paper on slow updating in decision analysis, with the paradigmatic examples being pundits being slow to update their low probabilities of Leicester City and Donald Trump in 2016.

We have competing titles for this paper. Josh wants to call it, “The past as a reference point: ex-ante thinking and the slowness to update,” but I prefer “The past is another country and it’s hard to get from there to here.” Or, I guess, “The past is another country.” That by itself is a fine title.

15 Comments

  1. Dale Lehman says:

    “Cats have 9 lives but predictions should not.”
    Sorry, but I couldn’t resist a feline reference.

  2. Anoneuoid says:

    “The past as a reference point: ex-ante thinking and the slowness to update,”
    […]
    “The past is another country and it’s hard to get from there to here.”
    […]
    “The past is another country.”

    How is anyone supposed to take you seriously with a tile like that? How about a more “classical” title:

    Examining optimal methods of gradational model amendment for robust decision analysis: Paradigmatic exemplars initialized to a low-probability state

    That one will incite the appropriate feelings of imposter syndrome in any reviewers or readers.

  3. Jonathan (another one) says:

    Updating Keynes:
    “When the facts change, I hold like hell to my position until I look foolish. What do you do?”

  4. jrkrideau says:

    “But I thought you said….”

  5. Thanatos Savehn says:

    “Strangely enough, for most people there was more certainty before the coin was flipped than after it landed”

  6. William Ockham says:

    Faulkner wrote your title:
    The past is never dead. It’s not even past.

  7. Ethan Bolker says:

    Thou hast committed—
    Fornication: but that was in another country;
    And besides, the wench is dead.

    https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Christopher_Marlowe

  8. BBIS says:

    Remembrance of Priors Past

    Persistence is a Virtue, Except When it Isn’t

    Priors Be Not Proud

    Just in Time Prior Elimination – to confuse the business school people

    The Priors in my Attic – not sure where that one comes from but it has a familiar ring

    The Half Life of Priors

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