Slow to update

This post is a placeholder to remind Josh Miller and me to write our paper on slow updating in decision analysis, with the paradigmatic examples being pundits being slow to update their low probabilities of Leicester City and Donald Trump in 2016.

We have competing titles for this paper. Josh wants to call it, “The past as a reference point: ex-ante thinking and the slowness to update,” but I prefer “The past is another country and it’s hard to get from there to here.” Or, I guess, “The past is another country.” That by itself is a fine title.

15 thoughts on “Slow to update

  1. “The past as a reference point: ex-ante thinking and the slowness to update,”
    […]
    “The past is another country and it’s hard to get from there to here.”
    […]
    “The past is another country.”

    How is anyone supposed to take you seriously with a tile like that? How about a more “classical” title:

    Examining optimal methods of gradational model amendment for robust decision analysis: Paradigmatic exemplars initialized to a low-probability state

    That one will incite the appropriate feelings of imposter syndrome in any reviewers or readers.

  2. Remembrance of Priors Past

    Persistence is a Virtue, Except When it Isn’t

    Priors Be Not Proud

    Just in Time Prior Elimination – to confuse the business school people

    The Priors in my Attic – not sure where that one comes from but it has a familiar ring

    The Half Life of Priors

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