This post is a placeholder to remind Josh Miller and me to write our paper on slow updating in decision analysis, with the paradigmatic examples being pundits being slow to update their low probabilities of Leicester City and Donald Trump in 2016.
We have competing titles for this paper. Josh wants to call it, “The past as a reference point: ex-ante thinking and the slowness to update,” but I prefer “The past is another country and it’s hard to get from there to here.” Or, I guess, “The past is another country.” That by itself is a fine title.
“Cats have 9 lives but predictions should not.”
Sorry, but I couldn’t resist a feline reference.
+1
(But now we need an appropriate cat picture.)
“(But now we need an appropriate cat picture.)”
When you have 9 lives, you can do stuff like this without stressin too much:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OlDdwUqg3Tg/T_givipusYI/AAAAAAAAAqU/WP8I8iBG2BU/s1600/FearlessCat.jpg
Spidercat!
Betting & Time
Clever
How is anyone supposed to take you seriously with a tile like that? How about a more “classical” title:
That one will incite the appropriate feelings of imposter syndrome in any reviewers or readers.
Slow to Update: Brief Nonverbal Displays Affect Neuroendocrine Levels and Risk Tolerance
Updating Keynes:
“When the facts change, I hold like hell to my position until I look foolish. What do you do?”
“But I thought you said….”
“Strangely enough, for most people there was more certainty before the coin was flipped than after it landed”
Faulkner wrote your title:
The past is never dead. It’s not even past.
Thou hast committed—
Fornication: but that was in another country;
And besides, the wench is dead.
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Christopher_Marlowe
You want the world to be one way; but it’s the other way
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marlo_Stanfield
Remembrance of Priors Past
Persistence is a Virtue, Except When it Isn’t
Priors Be Not Proud
Just in Time Prior Elimination – to confuse the business school people
The Priors in my Attic – not sure where that one comes from but it has a familiar ring
The Half Life of Priors