Gronau and Wagemakers write: The bridgesampling package facilitates the computation of the marginal likelihood for a wide range of different statistical models. For models implemented in Stan (such that the constants are retained), executing the code bridge_sampler(stanfit) automatically produces an … Continue reading
This one from 2017 is good; I want to share it with all of you again: Our recent discussion with mathematician Russ Lyons on confidence intervals reminded me of a famous logic paradox, in which equality is not as simple … Continue reading
Here’s the conference announcement: Discussion meeting organised by Dr Tom Hardwicke, Professor Marcus Munafò, Dr Sophia Crüwell, Professor Dorothy Bishop FRS FMedSci, Professor Eric-Jan Wagenmakers. Serious concerns about research quality have provoked debate across scientific disciplines about the merits of … Continue reading
“Not replicable, but citable” is how Robert Calin-Jageman puts it. His colleague Geoff Cumming tells the story: The APS [Association for Psychological Science] has just given a kick along to what’s most likely a myth: The Lucky Golf Ball. Alas! … Continue reading
The discussion started with this comment from Megan Higgs regarding a recent science replication initiative: I [Higgs] was immediately curious about their criteria for declaring a study replicated. In a quick skim of the info in the google form, here … Continue reading
It’s been a busy decade for our research. Before going on, I’d like to thank hundreds of collaborators, including students; funders from government, nonprofits, and private industry; blog commenters and people who have pointed us to inspiring research, outrages, beautiful … Continue reading
Someone writes: I’m emailing you about an email service I provide for some of the best blogs and podcasts on psychological methods. People can sign up for free and receive daily/real time emails containing the blog post(s). Below is the … Continue reading
This is not new—these reviews appeared in slightly rawer form several months ago on the blog. After that, I reorganized the material slightly and sent to Harvard Data Science Review (motto: “A Microscopic, Telescopic, and Kaleidoscopic View of Data Science”) … Continue reading
“You took my sadness out of context at the Mariners Apartment Complex” – Lana Del Rey It’s sunny, I’m in England, and I’m having a very tasty beer, and Lauren, Andrew, and I just finished a paper called The experiment is … Continue reading
A few months ago I sent the following message to some people: Dear philosophically-inclined colleagues: I’d like to organize an online discussion of Deborah Mayo’s new book. The table of contents and some of the book are here at Google … Continue reading
R-squared for Bayesian regression models. {\em American Statistician}. (Andrew Gelman, Ben Goodrich, Jonah Gabry, and Aki Vehtari) Voter registration databases and MRP: Toward the use of large scale databases in public opinion research. {\em Political Analysis}. (Yair Ghitza and Andrew … Continue reading
Fritz Strack points us to this article, “When Both the Original Study and Its Failed Replication Are Correct: Feeling Observed Eliminates the Facial-Feedback Effect,” by Tom Noah, Yaacov Schul, and Ruth Mayo, who write: According to the facial-feedback hypothesis, the … Continue reading
“If you will believe in your heart and confess with your lips, surely you will be saved one day” – The Mountain Goats paraphrasing Romans 10:9 One of the weird things about working with people a lot is that it … Continue reading
There is a recent pre-print Limitations of Bayesian Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation for Model Selection by Quentin Gronau and Eric-Jan Wagenmakers. Wagenmakers asked for comments and so here are my comments. Short version: They report a known limitation of LOO when it’s … Continue reading
Blake McShane sent me some material related to a paper of his (McShane et al., 2016; see reference list below), regarding various methods for combining p-values for meta-analysis under selection bias. His remarks related to some things written by Uri … Continue reading
Axel Cleeremans writes: I appreciated your piece titled “What has happened down here is the winds have changed”. Your mini-history of what happened was truly enlightening — but you didn’t explicitly mention our failure to replicate Bargh’s slow walking effect. … Continue reading
We’re in the heart of the academic season and there’s a lot going on. James Ramsey reported a critical performance regression bug in Stan 2.17 (this affects the latest CmdStan and PyStan, not the latest RStan). Sean Talts and Daniel … Continue reading
Justin Esarey writes: This Friday, October 27th at noon Eastern time, the International Methods Colloquium will host a roundtable discussion on the reproducibility crisis in social sciences and a recent proposal to impose a stricter threshold for statistical significance. The … Continue reading
Donny Williams writes: My colleagues and I have a paper recently accepted in the journal Psychological Science in which we “bang” on Bayes factors. We explicitly show how the Bayes factor varies according to tau (I thought you might find … Continue reading
John Schwenkler organized a discussion on this hot topic, featuring posts by – Dan Benjamin, Jim Berger, Magnus Johannesson, Valen Johnson, Brian Nosek, and E. J. Wagenmakers – Felipe De Brigard – Kenny Easwaran – Andrew Gelman and Blake McShane … Continue reading