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Of Tennys players and moral Hazards

Zach Shahn writes: After watching Tennys Sandgren play in the Australian Open quarterfinals last night, I think it might be time to accept that the dentists named Dennis people were onto something. Looking him up revealed that he was named after his great grandfather and not by a Richard Williams type parent who planned on […]

What makes Robin Pemantle’s bag of tricks for teaching math so great?

It’s here, and he even calls it a “bag of tricks”! Robin’s suggestions are similar to what Deb and I recommend, but Robin’s article is a crisp 25 pages and is purely focused on general advice for getting things to go well in the classroom, whereas we spend most of our book on specific activities […]

Awesome MCMC animation site by Chi Feng! On Github!

Sean Talts and Bob Carpenter pointed us to this awesome MCMC animation site by Chi Feng. For instance, here’s NUTS on a banana-shaped density. This is indeed super-cool, and maybe there’s a way to connect these with Stan/ShinyStan/Bayesplot so as to automatically make movies of Stan model fits. This would be great, both to help […]

How to think about an accelerating string of research successes?

While reading this post by Seth Frey on famous scientists who couldn’t let go of bad ideas, I followed a link to this post by David Gorski from 2010 entitled, “Luc Montagnier: The Nobel disease strikes again.” The quick story is that Montagnier endorsed some dubious theories. Here’s Gorski: He only won the Nobel Prize […]

Journals and refereeing: toward a new equilibrium

As we’ve discussed before (see also here), one of the difficulties of moving from our current system of review of scientific journal articles, to a new model of post-publication review, is that any major change seems likely to break the current “gift economy” system in which thousands of scientists put in millions of hours providing […]

Recently in the sister blog

In the article, “Testing the role of convergence in language acquisition, with implications for creole genesis,” Marlyse Baptista et al. write: The main objective of this paper is to test experimentally the role of convergence in language acquisition (second language acquisition specifically), with implications for creole genesis. . . . Our experiment is unique on […]

From no-data to data: The awkward transition

I was going to write a post with the above title, but now I don’t remember what I was going to say!

Of statistics class and judo class: Beyond the paradigm of sequential education

In judo class they kinda do the same thing every time: you warm up and then work on different moves. Different moves in different classes, and there are different levels, but within any level the classes don’t really have a sequence. You just start where you start, practice over and over, and gradually improve. Different […]

“A Headline That Will Make Global-Warming Activists Apoplectic”

I saw this article in the newspaper today, “2017 Was One of the Hottest Years on Record. And That Was Without El Niño,” subtitled, “The world in 2017 saw some of the highest average surface temperatures ever recorded, surprising scientists who had expected sharper retreat from recent record years,” and accompanied by the above graph, […]

Where that title came from

I could not think of a good title for this post. My first try was “An institutional model for the persistence of false belief, but I don’t think it’s helpful to describe scientific paradigms as ‘true’ or ‘false.’ Also, boo on cheap laughs at the expense of academia,” and later attempts were even worse. At […]

Stan short course in NYC in 2.5 weeks

To all who may be interested: Jonah Gabry, Stan developer and creator of ShinyStan, will be giving a short course downtown, from 6-8 Aug. Details here. Jonah has taught Stan courses before, and he knows what he’s doing.

“The idea of replication is central not just to scientific practice but also to formal statistics . . . Frequentist statistics relies on the reference set of repeated experiments, and Bayesian statistics relies on the prior distribution which represents the population of effects.”

Rolf Zwaan (who we last encountered here in “From zero to Ted talk in 18 simple steps”), Alexander Etz, Richard Lucas, and M. Brent Donnellan wrote an article, “Making replication mainstream,” which begins: Many philosophers of science and methodologists have argued that the ability to repeat studies and obtain similar results is an essential component […]

If you have a measure, it will be gamed (politics edition).

They sometimes call it Campbell’s Law: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is not exactly known for drumming up grassroots enthusiasm and small donor contributions, so it was quite a surprise on Monday when his reelection campaign reported that more than half of his campaign contributors this year gave $250 or less. But wait—a closer examination […]

“For professional baseball players, faster hand-eye coordination linked to batting performance”

Kevin Lewis sends along this press release reporting what may be the least surprising laboratory finding since the classic “Participants reported being hungrier when they walked into the café (mean = 7.38, SD = 2.20) than when they walked out [mean = 1.53, SD = 2.70, F(1, 75) = 107.68, P < 0.001]."

Data-based ways of getting a job

Bart Turczynski writes: I read the following blog with a lot of excitement: Then I reread it and paid attention to the graphs and models (which don’t seem to be actual models, but rather, well, lines.) The story makes sense, but the science part is questionable (or at least unclear.) Perhaps you’d like to have […]

The statistical checklist: Could there be a list of guidelines to help analysts do better work?

[image of cat with a checklist] Paul Cuffe writes: Your idea of “researcher degrees of freedom” [actually not my idea; the phrase comes from Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn] really resonates with me: I’m continually surprised by how many researchers freestyle their way through a statistical analysis, using whatever tests, and presenting whatever results, strikes their […]

The “Carl Sagan effect”

Javier Benítez writes: I am not in academia, but I have learned a lot about science from what’s available to the public. But I also didn’t know that public outreach is looked down upon by academia. See the Carl Sagan Effect. Susana Martinez-Conde writes: One scientist, who agreed to participate on the condition of anonymity—an […]

Mister P wins again

Chad Kiewiet De Jonge, Gary Langer, and Sofi Sinozich write: This paper presents state-level estimates of the 2016 presidential election using data from the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll and multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP). While previous implementations of MRP for election forecasting have relied on data from prior elections to establish poststratification targets for […]

The course of science

Shravan Vasishth sends this along: Yup. Not always, though. Even though the above behavior is rewarded.

What happens to your career when you have to retract a paper?

In response to our recent post on retractions, Josh Krieger sends along two papers he worked on with Pierre Azoulay, Jeff Furman, Fiona Murray, and Alessandro Bonatti. Krieger writes, “Both papers are about the spillover effects of retractions on other work. Turns out retractions are great for identification!” Paper #1: “The career effects of scandal: […]