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Archive of posts filed under the Bayesian Statistics category.

No, I didn’t say that!

Faye Flam wrote a solid article for the New York Times on Bayesian statistics, and as part of her research she spent some time on the phone with me awhile ago discussing the connections between Bayesian inference and the crisis in science criticism. My longer thoughts on this topic are in my recent article, “The […]

Some general principles of Bayesian data analysis, arising from a Stan analysis of John Lee Anderson’s height

God is in every leaf of every tree. The leaf in question today is the height of journalist and Twitter aficionado Jon Lee Anderson, a man who got some attention a couple years ago after disparaging some dude for having too high a tweets-to-followers ratio. Anderson called the other guy a “little twerp” which made […]

Free Stan T-shirt to the first “little twerp” who does a (good) Bayesian analysis of Jon Lee Anderson’s height

I’d like to see a Stan implementation of the analysis presented in this comment by Gary from a year and a half ago.

Waic for time series

Helen Steingroever writes: I’m currently working on a model comparison paper using WAIC, and would like to ask you the following question about the WAIC computation: I have data of one participant that consist of 100 sequential choices (you can think of these data as being a time series). I want to compute the WAIC […]

“How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry”

David Rothschild (coauthor of the Xbox study, the Mythical Swing Voter paper, and of course the notorious Aapor note) will be speaking Friday 10 Oct in the Economics and Big Data meetup in NYC. His title: “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry: information aggregation using non-representative polling data.” Should be fun! P.P.S. […]

What do you do to visualize uncertainty?

Howard Wainer writes: What do you do to visualize uncertainty? Do you only use static methods (e.g. error bounds)? Or do you also make use of dynamic means (e.g. have the display vary over time proportional to the error, so you don’t know exactly where the top of the bar is, since it moves while […]

More bad news for the buggy-whip manufacturers

In a news article regarding difficulties in using panel surveys to measure the unemployment rate, David Leonhardt writes: The main factor is technology. It’s a major cause of today’s response-rate problems – but it’s also the solution. For decades, survey research has revolved around the telephone, and it’s worked very well. But Americans’ relationship with […]

Bayesian Cognitive Modeling  Examples Ported to Stan

There’s a new intro to Bayes in town. Michael Lee and Eric-Jan Wagenmaker. 2014. Bayesian Cognitive Modeling: A Practical Course. Cambridge Uni. Press. This book’s a wonderful introduction to applied Bayesian modeling. But don’t take my word for it — you can download and read the first two parts of the book (hundreds of pages […]

My talk at the Simons Foundation this Wed 5pm

Anti-Abortion Democrats, Jimmy Carter Republicans, and the Missing Leap Day Babies: Living with Uncertainty but Still Learning To learn about the human world, we should accept uncertainty and embrace variation. We illustrate this concept with various examples from our recent research (the above examples are with Yair Ghitza and Aki Vehtari) and discuss more generally […]

Likelihood from quantiles?

Michael McLaughlin writes: Many observers, esp. engineers, have a tendency to record their observations as {quantile, CDF} pairs, e.g., x CDF(x) 3.2 0.26 4.7 0.39 etc. I suspect that their intent is to do some kind of “least-squares” analysis by computing theoretical CDFs from a model, e.g. Gamma(a, b), then regressing the observed CDFs against […]