I happened to recently reread this article of mine from 2010, and I absolutely love it. I don’t think it’s been read by many people—it was published as one of three discussions of an article by Brad Efron in Statistical Science—so I wanted to share it with you again here. This is the article where […]

**Bayesian Statistics**category.

## Hypothesis Testing is a Bad Idea (my talk at Warwick, England, 2pm Thurs 15 Sept)

This is the conference, and here’s my talk (will do Google hangout, just as with my recent talks in Bern, Strasbourg, etc): Hypothesis Testing is a Bad Idea Through a series of examples, we consider problems with classical hypothesis testing, whether performed using classical p-values or confidence intervals, Bayes factors, or Bayesian inference using noninformative […]

## Q: “Is A 50-State Poll As Good As 50 State Polls?” A: Use Mister P.

Jeff Lax points to this post from Nate Silver and asks for my thoughts. In his post, Nate talks about data quality issues of national and state polls. It’s a good discussion, but the one thing he unfortunately doesn’t talk about is multilevel regression and poststratification (or see here for more). What you want to […]

## Stan users group hits 2000 registrations

Of course, there are bound to be duplicate emails, dead emails, and people who picked up Stan, joined the list, and never came back. But still, that’s a lot of people who’ve expressed interest! It’s been an amazing ride that’s only going to get better as we learn more and continue to improve Stan’s speed […]

## Exploration vs. exploitation tradeoff

Alon Levy (link from Palko) looks into “Hyperloop, a loopy intercity rail transit idea proposed by Tesla Motors’ Elon Musk, an entrepreneur who hopes to make a living some day building cars,” and writes: There is a belief within American media that a successful person can succeed at anything. He (and it’s invariably he) is […]

## R demos for BDA3

Last year we published some Matlab/Octave and Python demos for BDA3. During the summer my student Markus Paasiniemi ported these demos to R. New R BDA3 demos are now available in github. We hope these are helpful for someone. They are now just R code, although R Markdown would be cool. Btw. we are expecting […]

## In Bayesian regression, it’s easy to account for measurement error

Mikhail Balyasin writes: I have come across this paper by Jacob Westfall and Tal Yarkoni, “Statistically Controlling for Confounding Constructs Is Harder than You Think.” I think it talks about very similar issues you raise on your blog, but in this case they advise to use SEM [structural equation models] to control for confounding constructs. […]

## Fast CAR: Two weird tricks for fast conditional autoregressive models in Stan

Max Joseph writes: Conditional autoregressive (CAR) models are popular as prior distributions for spatial random effects with areal spatial data. Historically, MCMC algorithms for CAR models have benefitted from efficient Gibbs sampling via full conditional distributions for the spatial random effects. But, these conditional specifications do not work in Stan, where the joint density needs […]

## Free workshop on Stan for pharmacometrics (Paris, 22 September 2016); preceded by (non-free) three day course on Stan for pharmacometrics

So much for one post a day… Workshop: Stan for Pharmacometrics Day If you are interested in a free day of Stan for pharmacometrics in Paris on 22 September 2016, see the registration page: Stan for Pharmacometrics Day (free workshop) Julie Bertrand (statistical pharmacologist from Paris-Diderot and UCL) has finalized the program: When Who What […]

## Hey pollsters! Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to do it for you.

Alan Abramowitz writes: In five days, Clinton’s lead increased from 5 points to 12 points. And Democratic party ID margin increased from 3 points to 10 points. No, I don’t think millions of voters switched to the Democratic party. I think Democrats are were just more likely to respond in that second poll. And, remember, […]

## His varying slopes don’t seem to follow a normal distribution

Bruce Doré writes: I have a question about multilevel modeling I’m hoping you can help with. What should one do when random effects coefficients are clearly not normally distributed (i.e., coef(lmer(y~x+(x|id))) )? Is this a sign that the model should be changed? Or can you stick with this model and infer that the assumption of […]

## Postdoc in Finland with Aki

I’m looking for a postdoc to work with me at Aalto University, Finland. The person hired will participate in research on Gaussian processes, functional constraints, big data, approximative Bayesian inference, model selection and assessment, deep learning, and survival analysis models (e.g. cardiovascular diseases and cancer). Methods will be implemented mostly in GPy and Stan. The […]

## Taking Bayesian Inference Seriously [my talk tomorrow at Harvard conference on Big Data]

Mon 22 Aug, 9:50am, at Harvard Science Center Hall A: Taking Bayesian Inference Seriously Over the years I have been moving toward the use of informative priors in more and more of my applications. I will discuss several examples from theory, application, and computing where traditional noninformative priors lead to disaster, but a little bit […]

## What’s gonna happen in November?

Nadia Hassan writes: 2016 may be strange with Trump. Do you have any thoughts on how people might go about modeling a strange election? When I asked you about predictability and updating election forecasts, you stated that models that rely on polls at different points should be designed to allow for surprises. You have touted […]

## Are stereotypes statistically accurate?

Apparently there’s a debate in psychology about the accuracy of stereotypes. Lin Bian and Andrei Cimpian write: In his book Social Perception and Social Reality, Lee Jussim suggests that people’s beliefs about various groups (i.e., their stereotypes) are largely accurate. We unpack this claim using the distinction between generic and statistical beliefs—a distinction supported by […]

## Boostrapping your posterior

Demetri Spanos writes: I bumped into your paper with John Carlin, Beyond Power Calculations, and encountered your concept of the hypothetical replication of the point estimate. In my own work I have used a similarly structured (but for technical reasons, differently motivated) concept which I have informally been calling the “consensus posterior.” Specifically, supposing a […]

## Smooth poll aggregation using state-space modeling in Stan, from Jim Savage

Jim Savage writes: I just saw your post on poll bounces; have been thinking the same myself. Why are the poll aggregators so jumpy about new polls? Annoyed, I put together a poll aggregator that took a state-space approach to the unobserved preferences; nothing more than the 8 schools (14 polls?) example with a time-varying […]

## The p-value is a random variable

Sam Behseta sends along this paper by Laura Lazzeroni, Ying Lu, and Ilana Belitskaya-Lévy, who write: P values from identical experiments can differ greatly in a way that is surprising to many. The failure to appreciate this wide variability can lead researchers to expect, without adequate justification, that statistically significant findings will be replicated, only […]