OK, I guess it looks like the Buzzfeed-style headlines are officially over. Anyway, Judea Pearl writes: I missed the discussion you had here about Econometrics: Instrument locally, extrapolate globally, which also touched on my work with Elias Bareinboim. So, please allow me to start a new discussion about extrapolation and external validity. First, two recent […]

**Causal Inference**category.

## Econometrics: Instrument locally, extrapolate globally

Rajeev Dehejia sends along two papers, one with James Bisbee, Cristian Pop-Eleches, and Cyrus Samii on extrapolating estimated local average treatment effects to new settings, and one with Cristian Pop-Eleches and Cyrus Samii on external validity in natural experiments. This is important stuff, and they work it out in real examples.

## 3 postdoc opportunities you can’t miss—here in our group at Columbia! Apply NOW, don’t miss out!

Hey, just once, the Buzzfeed-style hype is appropriate. We have 3 amazing postdoc opportunities here, and you need to apply NOW. Here’s the deal: we’re working on some amazing projects. You know about Stan and associated exciting projects in computational statistics. There’s the virtual database query, which is the way I like to describe our […]

## Mindset interventions are a scalable treatment for academic underachievement — or not?

Someone points me to this post by Scott Alexander, criticizing the work of psychology researcher Carol Dweck. Alexander looks carefully at an article, “Mindset Interventions Are A Scalable Treatment For Academic Underachievement,” by David Paunesku, Gregory Walton, Carissa Romero, Eric Smith, David Yeager, and Carol Dweck, and he finds the following: Among ordinary students, the […]

## Comments on Imbens and Rubin causal inference book

Guido Imbens and Don Rubin recently came out with a book on causal inference. The book’s great (of course I would say that, as I’ve collaborated with both authors) and it’s so popular that I keep having to get new copies because people keep borrowing my copy and not returning it. Imbens and Rubin come […]

## Reprint of “Observational Studies” by William Cochran followed by comments by current researchers in observational studies

Dylan Small organized this discussion in the new journal, Observational Studies. Cochran’s 1972 article is followed by comments from: Norman Breslow Thomas Cook David Cox & Nanny Wermuth Stephen Fienberg Joseph Gastwirth & Barry Graubard Andrew Gelman Ben Hansen & Adam Sales Miguel Hernan Jennifer Hill Judea Pearl Paul Rosenbaum Donald Rubin Herbert Smith Mark […]

## Evaluating the Millennium Villages Project

I’m a postdoc working with Andy and Jeff Sachs on the evaluation of the Millennium Villages Project, a ten-year economic development project operating in ten sub-Saharan African countries. Our evaluation protocol was recently accepted by The Lancet (full text here, and the accompanying technical paper here). We welcome your thoughts!

## Michael LaCour in 20 years

In case you were wondering what “Bruno” Lacour will be doing a couple decades from now . . . James Delaney pointed me to this CNN news article, “Connecticut’s strict gun law linked to large homicide drop” by Carina Storrs: The rate of gun-related murders fell sharply in the 10 years after Connecticut implemented a […]

## My talk at MIT this Thursday

When I was a student at MIT, there was no statistics department. I took a statistics course from Stephan Morgenthaler and liked it. (I’d already taken probability and stochastic processes back at the University of Maryland; my instructor in the latter class was Prof. Grace Yang, who was super-nice. I couldn’t follow half of what […]

## What I got wrong (and right) about econometrics and unbiasedness

Yesterday I spoke at the Princeton economics department. The title of my talk was: “Unbiasedness”: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. The talk went all right—people seemed ok with what I was saying—but I didn’t see a lot of audience involvement. It was a bit […]

## A causal-inference version of a statistics problem: If you fit a regression model with interactions, and the underlying process has an interaction, your coefficients won’t be directly interpretable

A colleague pointed me to a recent paper, “Does Regression Produce Representative Estimates of Causal Effects?” by Peter Aronow and Cyrus Samii, which begins: With an unrepresentative sample, the estimate of a causal effect may fail to characterize how effects operate in the population of interest. What is less well understood is that conventional estimation […]

## This year’s Atlantic Causal Inference Conference: 20-21 May

Dylan Small writes: The conference will take place May 20-21 (with a short course on May 19th) and the web site for the conference is here. The deadline for submitting a poster title for the poster session is this Friday. Junior researchers (graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, and assistant professors) whose poster demonstrates exceptional research will […]

## “Thinking about the possibility of spurious correlation isn’t a matter of liking—it should be pretty much automatic.”

I agree with sociologist David Weakliem when he writes the above sentence. Here’s the full paragraph: Krugman says, “you can, if you like, try to argue that this relationship is spurious, maybe not causal.” Actually, I [Weakliem] liked his original figure, since I agree with Krugman on economic policy. But thinking about the possibility of […]

## Time-release pedagogy??

Mark Palko points to this report and writes: Putting aside my concerns with the “additional years of learning” metric (and I have a lot of them), I have the feeling that there’s something strange here or i’m missing something obvious. That jump from 3-year impact to 4-year seems excessive. The press release links to a […]

## Bayesian models, causal inference, and time-varying exposures

Mollie Wood writes: I am a doctoral student in clinical and population health research. My dissertation research is on prenatal medication exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes in children, and I’ve encountered a difficult problem that I hope you might be able to advise me on. I am working on a problem in which my main exposure […]

## The State of the Art in Causal Inference: Some Changes Since 1972

For the first issue of the journal Observational Studies, editor Dylan Small will reprint William Cochran’s 1972 article on the topic (which begins, “Observational studies are a class of statistical studies that have increased in frequency and importance during the past 20 years. In an observational study the investigator is restricted to taking selected observations […]

## Stock-and-flow and other concepts that are important in statistical modeling but typically don’t get taught to statisticians

Bill Harris writes: You’ve written about causality somewhat often, and you, along with perhaps everyone who has done anything with statistics, have written that “correlation is not causation.” When you say that correlation is not causation, you seem to be pointing out cases where correlation exists but causality does not. While that’s important, there’s another […]

## Causal Impact from Google

Bill Harris writes: Did you see http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2014/09/google-uses-r-to-calculate-roi-on-advertising-campaigns.html? Would that be something worth a joint post and discussion from you and Judea? I then wrote: Interesting. It seems to all depend on the choice of “control time series.” That said, it could still be a useful method. Bill replied: The good: Bayesian approaches made very approachable […]