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Archive of posts filed under the Decision Theory category.

On deck this week

Mon: Research benefits of feminism Tues: Using statistics to make the world a better place? Wed: Trajectories of Achievement Within Race/Ethnicity: “Catching Up” in Achievement Across Time Thurs: Common sense and statistics Fri: I’m sure that my anti-Polya attitude is completely unfair Sat: The anti-Woodstein Sun: Sometimes you’re so subtle they don’t get the joke

It’s Too Hard to Publish Criticisms and Obtain Data for Replication

Peter Swan writes: The problem you allude to in the above reference and in your other papers on ethics is a broad and serious one. I and my students have attempted to replicate a number of top articles in the major finance journals. Either they cannot be replicated due to missing data or what might […]

“Now the company appears to have screwed up badly, and they’ve done it in pretty much exactly the way you would expect a company to screw up when it doesn’t drill down into the data.”

Palko tells a good story: One of the accepted truths of the Netflix narrative is that CEO Reed Hastings is obsessed with data and everything the company does is data driven . . . Of course, all 21st century corporations are relatively data-driven. The fact that Netflix has large data sets on customer behavior does […]

On deck this week

Mon: “Now the company appears to have screwed up badly, and they’ve done it in pretty much exactly the way you would expect a company to screw up when it doesn’t drill down into the data.” Tues: Expectation propagation as a way of life Wed: I’d like to see a preregistered replication on this one […]

The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals

Richard Morey writes: On the tail of our previous paper about confidence intervals, showing that researchers tend to misunderstand the inferences one can draw from CIs, we [Morey, Rink Hoekstra, Jeffrey Rouder, Michael Lee, and EJ Wagenmakers] have another paper that we have just submitted which talks about the theory underlying inference by CIs. Our […]

Don’t believe everything you read in the (scientific) papers

A journalist writes in with a question: This study on [sexy topic] is getting a lot of attention, and I wanted to see if you had a few minutes to look it over for me . . . Basically, I am somewhat skeptical of [sexy subject area] explanations of complex behavior, and in this case […]

On deck this week

Mon: Steven Pinker on writing: Where I agree and where I disagree Tues: Buggy-whip update Wed: The inclination to deny all variation Thurs: The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals Fri: Saying things that are out of place Sat: Don’t, don’t, don’t, don’t . . . We’re brothers of the same mind, unblind Sun: […]

On deck this week

Mon: Quick tips on giving research presentations Tues: How to read (in quantitative social science). And by implication, how to write. Wed: If observational studies are outlawed, then only outlaws will do observational studies Thurs: Designing a study to see if “the 10x programmer” is a real thing Fri: The persistence of the “schools are […]

On deck this month

Here goes: Quick tips on giving research presentations How to read (in quantitative social science). And by implication, how to write. If observational studies are outlawed, then only outlaws will do observational studies Designing a study to see if “the 10x programmer” is a real thing The persistence of the “schools are failing” story line […]

On deck this week

Mon: The hype cycle starts again Tues: I (almost and inadvertently) followed Dan Kahan’s principles in my class today, and that was a good thing (would’ve even been more of a good thing had I realized what I was doing and done it better, but I think I will do better in the future, which […]