Skip to content
Archive of posts filed under the Decision Theory category.

On deck this week

Mon: Forking paths vs. six quick regression tips Tues: Primed to lose Wed: Point summary of posterior simulations? Thurs: In general, hypothesis testing is overrated and hypothesis generation is underrated, so it’s fine for these data to be collected with exploration in mind. Fri: “Priming Effects Replicate Just Fine, Thanks” Sat: Pooling is relative to […]

On deck this week

Mon: When does peer review make no damn sense? Tues: Stunning breakthrough: Using Stan to map cancer screening! Wed: Where the fat people at? Thurs: The Notorious N.H.S.T. presents: Mo P-values Mo Problems Fri: What’s the difference between randomness and uncertainty? Sat: You’ll never guess what I say when I have nothing to say Sun: […]

Postdoc opportunity with Sophia Rabe-Hesketh and me in Berkeley!

Sophia writes: Mark Wilson, Zach Pardos and I are looking for a postdoc to work with us on a range of projects related to educational assessment and statistical modeling, such as Bayesian modeling in Stan (joint with Andrew Gelman). See here for more details. We will accept applications until February 26. The position is for […]

The time-reversal heuristic—a new way to think about a published finding that is followed up by a large, preregistered replication (in context of Amy Cuddy’s claims about power pose)

[Note to busy readers: If you’re sick of power pose, there’s still something of general interest in this post; scroll down to the section on the time-reversal heuristic. I really like that idea.] Someone pointed me to this discussion on Facebook in which Amy Cuddy expresses displeasure with my recent criticism (with Kaiser Fung) of […]

On deck this week

Mon: Ted Versus Powerpose and the Moneygoround, Part One Tues: “Null hypothesis” = “A specific random number generator” Wed: “Why IT Fumbles Analytics Projects Thurs: Is a 60% risk reduction really no big deal? Fri: Placebo effect shocker: After reading this, you won’t know what to believe. Sat: TOP SECRET: Newly declassified documents on evaluating […]

My namesake doesn’t seem to understand the principles of decision analysis

It says “Never miss another deadline.” But if you really could never miss your deadlines, you’d just set your deadlines earlier, no? It’s statics vs. dynamics all over again. That said, this advice seems reasonable: The author has also developed a foolproof method of structuring your writing, so that you make effective use of your […]

On deck this week

Mon: My namesake doesn’t seem to understand the principles of decision analysis Tues: Middle-aged white death trends update: It’s all about women in the south Wed: My talk Fri 1pm at the University of Chicago Thurs: If you’re using Stata and you want to do Bayes, you should be using StataStan Fri: One quick tip […]

On deck this week

Mon: New course: Street-Fighting Math Tues: Paxil: What went wrong? Wed: Pro-PACE, anti-PACE Thurs: My namesake doesn’t seem to understand the principles of decision analysis Fri: Risk aversion is a two-way street Sat: A reanalysis of data from a Psychological Science paper Sun: The devil really is in the details; or, You’ll be able to […]

Read this to change your entire perspective on statistics: Why inversion of hypothesis tests is not a general procedure for creating uncertainty intervals

Dave Choi writes: A reviewer has pointed me something that you wrote in your blog on inverting test statistics. Specifically, the reviewer is interested in what can happen if the test can reject the entire assumed family of models, and has asked me to consider discussing whether it applies to a paper that I am […]

The PACE trial and the problems with discrete, yes/no thinking

I don’t often read the Iranian Journal of Cancer Prevention, but I like this quote: I was thinking more about the PACE trial. God is in every leaf of every tree. There’s been a lot of discussion about statistical problems with the PACE papers, and also about the research team’s depressing refusal to share their […]

On deck this week

Mon: Plausibility vs. probability, prior distributions, and the garden of forking paths Tues: PACE study and the Lancet: Journal reputation is a two-way street Wed: The PACE trial and the problems with discrete, yes/no thinking Thurs: Givewell wants to put lithium in your drinking water Fri: Read this to change your entire perspective on statistics: […]

On deck this week

A day late already, sorry . . . Tues: Guess what today’s kids are clicking on: My presentation at the Electronic Conference on Teaching Statistics Wed: Showdown in Vegas: When the numbers differ in the third decimal place Thurs: Definitely got nothing to do with chess IV Fri: Vitamin pill shocker: “A complex web of […]

There are 6 ways to get fired from Johnson & Johnson: (1) theft, (2) sexual harassment, (3) running an experiment without a control group, (4) keeping a gambling addict away from the casino, (5) chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, and (6) not covering up records of side effects of a drug you’re marketing to kids

Paul Alper writes: Gorsky, it seems to me, dwarfs the villains you often write about. Here’s the background, from New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof: Risperdal is a billion-dollar antipsychotic medicine with real benefits — and a few unfortunate side effects. It can cause strokes among the elderly. And it can cause boys to grow […]

You’ll never guess how we answer this question: “Am I doing myself a disservice by being too idealistic in a corporate environment?”

A student writes: I’m an undergrad, going into my 4th year. Over the course of my Business-Economics major and Gerontology minor, I’ve developed a burning interest in modeling and analysis and a smoldering distrust of most everything else in the field. I’m just finishing a summer internship I’ve spent the summer in the new Predictive […]

On deck this week

Mon: Rapid post-publication review Tues: He’s skeptical about Neuroskeptic’s skepticism Wed: R sucks Thurs: You’ll never guess how we answer this question: “Am I doing myself a disservice by being too idealistic in a corporate environment?” Fri: Gresham’s Law of experimental methods Sat: Turbulent Studies, Rocky Statistics: Publicational Consequences of Experiencing Inferential Instability Sun: There […]

A Replication in Economics: Does “Genetic Distance” to the US Predict Development?

Douglas Campbell writes: A new study finding that more than half of psychology studies failed to replicate is a very positive step forward for social science. Could a similar study be undertaken in economics, and what would it find? Most empirical economics research is non-experimental, and thus I suspect that most studies would replicate in the sense […]

More in the sister blog

Why do we like making year-end lists? This was one that I had no idea how to answer.

LaCour and Green 1, This American Life 0

A couple days after listening to the segment where This American Life got conned by Mars One, I happened to listen to the This American Life segment on LaCour and Green. LaCour didn’t appear on the show but Green did. Wow, Ira Glass really got scammed. But it was a pretty elaborate con; LaCour not […]

Mars 1, This American Life 0

Palko points to the ultimate takedown of Mars One, courtesy of Sydney Do and Andrew Owens. At this point, shooting down the financials of Mars One seems a bit of overkill, something comparable to debunking the statistical expertise of Satoshi Kanazawa or Daryl Bem, or questioning the quality of publications with the name “Edward Wegman” […]

Bayesian decision analysis for the drug-approval process (NSFW)

Bill Jefferys points me to a paper, “Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design,” by Vahid Montazerhodjat and Andrew Lo. Here’s the abstract: Implicit in the drug-approval process is a trade-off between Type I and Type II error. We propose using Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) to […]