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Archive of posts filed under the Decision Theory category.

Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them

To the nearest 10%: To the nearest 1%: To the nearest 0.1%: I think the National Weather Service knows what they’re doing on this one.

On deck this week

Mon: Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them Tues: Try a spaghetti plot Wed: I ain’t got no watch and you keep asking me what time it is Thurs: Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam Fri: Solution to the helicopter design problem Sat: Solution to the […]

Prediction Market Project for the Reproducibility of Psychological Science

Anna Dreber Almenberg writes: The second prediction market project for the reproducibility project will soon be up and running – please participate! There will be around 25 prediction markets, each representing a particular study that is currently being replicated. Each study (and thus market) can be summarized by a key hypothesis that is being tested, which […]

On deck this week

Tues: In one of life’s horrible ironies, I wrote a paper “Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons” but now I spend lots of time worrying about multiple comparisons Wed: The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say Thurs: Buggy-whip update Fri: The inclination to deny all variation Sat: […]

When there’s a lot of variation, it can be a mistake to make statements about “typical” attitudes

This story has two points: 1. There’s a tendency for scientific results to be framed in absolute terms (in psychology, this corresponds to general claims about the population) but that can be a mistake in that sometimes the most important part of the story is variation; and 2. Before getting to the comparisons, it can […]

Rational != Self-interested

I’ve said it before (along with Aaron Edlin and Noah Kaplan) and I’ll say it again. Rationality and self-interest are two dimensions of behavior. An action can be: 1. Rational and self-interested 2. Irrational and self-interested 3. Rational and altruistic 4. Irrational and altruistic. It’s easy enough to come up with examples of all of […]

On deck this week

Mon: “Regular Customer: It was so much easier when I was a bum. I didn’t have to wake up at 4am to go to work, didn’t have all these bills and girlfriends.” Tues: Rational != Self-interested Wed: When there’s a lot of variation, it can be a mistake to make statements about “typical” attitudes Thurs: […]

On deck this month

Lots of good stuff in the queue: “Regular Customer: It was so much easier when I was a bum. I didn’t have to wake up at 4am to go to work, didn’t have all these bills and girlfriends.” Rational != Self-interested When there’s a lot of variation, it can be a mistake to make statements […]

On deck this week

Mon: Some general principles of Bayesian data analysis, arising from a Stan analysis of John Lee Anderson’s height Tues: Are Ivy League schools overrated? Wed: Can anyone guess what went wrong here? Thurs: What went wrong Fri: 65% of principals say that at least 30% of students . . . wha?? Sat: Carrie McLaren was […]

Some will spam you with a six-gun and some with a fountain pen

A few weeks ago the following came in the email: Dear Professor Gelman, I am writing you because I am a prospective doctoral student with considerable interest in your research. My name is Xian Zhao, but you can call me by my English name Alex, a student from China. My plan is to apply to […]