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Archive of posts filed under the Decision Theory category.

On deck this week

Mon: Eccentric mathematician Tues: What’s the most important thing in statistics that’s not in the textbooks? Wed: Carl Morris: Man Out of Time [reflections on empirical Bayes] Thurs: “The general problem I have with noninformatively-derived Bayesian probabilities is that they tend to be too strong.” Fri: Good, mediocre, and bad p-values Sat: Which of these […]

Online predictions from ipredict

Following up on our post on PredictWise, Richard Barker points to this fun site of market-based predictions. It’s subtitled, “Buy and sell stocks in future political and economic events.” It’s based in New Zealand so you can bet on wacky propositions such as, “David Carter to be next High Commissioner from New Zealand to the […]

On deck this week

Mon: New book on Bayesian analysis in ecology using Stan Tues: The feather, the bathroom scale, and the kangaroo Wed: Instead of worrying about multiple hypothesis correction, just fit a hierarchical model. Thurs: Political Attitudes in Social Environments Fri: Statistical significance, practical significance, and interactions Sat: Statistical analysis on a dataset that consists of a […]

Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality

I sent my post about the political implication of behavioral economics, embodied cognition, etc., to Gerd Gigerenzer, who commented as follows: The “half-empty” versus “half-full” explanation of the differences between Kahneman and us misses the essential point: the difference is about the nature of the glass of rationality, not the level of the water. For […]

A message I just sent to my class

I wanted to add some context to what we talked about in class today. Part of the message I was sending was that there are some stupid things that get published and you should be careful about that: don’t necessarily believe something, just cos it’s statistically significant and published in a top journal. And, sure, […]

Another stylized fact bites the dust

According to economist Henry Farber (link from Dan Goldstein): In a seminal paper, Camerer, Babcock, Loewenstein, and Thaler (1997) find that the wage elasticity of daily hours of work New York City (NYC) taxi drivers is negative and conclude that their labor supply behavior is consistent with target earning (having reference dependent preferences). I replicate […]

Mistaken identity

Someone I know sent me the following email: The person XX [pseudonym redacted] who posts on your blog is almost certainly YY [name redacted]. So he is referencing his own work and trying to make it sound like it is a third party endorsing it. Not sure why but it bugs me. He is an […]

And . . . our featured 2015 seminar speaker is . . . Thomas HOBBES!!!!!

Just in case you’ve forgotten where this all came from: This came in the departmental email awhile ago: CALL FOR APPLICATIONS: LATOUR SEMINAR — DUE DATE AUGUST 11 (extended) The Brown Institute for Media Innovation, Alliance (Columbia University, École Polytechnique, Sciences Po, and Panthéon-Sorbonne University), The Center for Science and Society, and The Faculty of […]

The championship! Thomas Hobbes vs. Philip K. Dick

OK, since this is the final round, you’re allowed to make as many Calvin and Hobbes jokes and as many dick jokes as you want. These two guys have been through a lot together. To get here, Hobbes defeated, in order, Larry David, Leo Tolstoy, Chris Rock, Ed Wood, and Miguel de Cervantes; while Dick […]

Philip K. Dick (2) vs. George Carlin (2); Hobbes advances

For yesterday’s semifinal, I was all ready to go with this argument by Zbicyclist in favor of Cervantes: For someone who wasn’t writing in English, he’s credited with a fair number of English catchphrases. Let’s bring the old guy back to life and see what else he’s got. When thou art at Rome, do as […]