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Archive of posts filed under the Decision Theory category.

Fooled by randomness

From 2006: Naseem Taleb‘s publisher sent me a copy of “Fooled by randomness: the hidden role of chance in life and the markets” to review. It’s an important topic, and the book is written in a charming style—I’ll try to respond in kind, with some miscellaneous comments. On the cover of the book is a […]

On deck this week

Mon: Transitioning to Stan Tues: When you believe in things that you don’t understand Wed: Looking for Bayesian expertise in India, for the purpose of analysis of sarcoma trials Thurs: If you get to the point of asking, just do it. But some difficulties do arise . . . Fri: One-tailed or two-tailed? Sat: Index […]

Advice: positive-sum, zero-sum, or negative-sum

There’s a lot of free advice out there. I offer some of it myself! As I’ve written before (see this post from 2008 reacting to this advice from Dan Goldstein for business school students, and this post from 2010 reacting to some general advice from Nassim Taleb), what we see is typically presented as advice […]

On deck this week

Mon: How literature is like statistical reasoning: Kosara on stories. Gelman and Basbøll on stories. Tues: Understanding Simpson’s paradox using a graph Wed: Advice: positive-sum, zero-sum, or negative-sum Thurs: Small multiples of lineplots > maps (ok, not always, but yes in this case) Fri: “More research from the lunatic fringe” Sat: “Schools of statistical thoughts […]

Am I too negative?

For background, you can start by reading my recent article, Is It Possible to Be an Ethicist Without Being Mean to People? and then a blog post, Quality over Quantity, by John Cook, who writes: At one point [Ed] Tufte spoke more generally and more personally about pursuing quality over quantity. He said most papers […]

On deck this week

Mon: The most-cited statistics papers ever Tues: American Psychological Society announces a new journal Wed: Am I too negative? Thurs: As the boldest experiment in journalism history, you admit you made a mistake Fri: The Notorious N.H.S.T. presents: Mo P-values Mo Problems Sat: Bizarre academic spam Sun: An old discussion of food deserts

On deck this week

OK, I’ve given up on theme weeks. I have enough saved-up material to do it, and it wouldn’t be too much trouble to group the scheduled posts into themes, but there doesn’t really seem to be a point. I say this because, having looked at the comment threads from the past few weeks, the comments […]

On deck this month

Actually, more like the next month and a half . . . I just have this long backlog so I thought I might as well share it with you: Empirical implications of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models A statistical graphics course and statistical graphics advice What property is important in a risk prediction model? Discrimination […]

Greg Mankiw’s utility function

From 2010: Greg Mankiw writes (link from Tyler Cowen): Without any taxes, accepting that editor’s assignment would have yielded my children an extra $10,000. With taxes, it yields only $1,000. In effect, once the entire tax system is taken into account, my family’s marginal tax rate is about 90 percent. Is it any wonder that […]

Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life

From 2011: Chapter 1 On Sunday we were over on 125 St so I stopped by the Jamaican beef patties place but they were closed. Jesus Taco was next door so I went there instead. What a mistake! I don’t know what Masanao and Yu-Sung could’ve been thinking. Anyway, then I had Jamaican beef patties […]