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Archive of posts filed under the Decision Theory category.

Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured

I agree with Uri Simonsohn that you don’t learn much by looking at the distribution of all the p-values that have appeared in some literature. Uri explains: Most p-values reported in most papers are irrelevant for the strategic behavior of interest. Covariates, manipulation checks, main effects in studies testing interactions, etc. Including them we underestimate […]

On deck this week

Mon: Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis Tues: Stan attribution Wed: Cannabis/IQ follow-up: Same old story Thurs: Defining conditional probability Fri: In defense of endless arguments Sat: Emails I never finished reading Sun: BREAKING . . . Sepp Blatter accepted $2M payoff from Dennis Hastert

Performing design calculations (type M and type S errors) on a routine basis?

Somebody writes writes: I am conducting a survival analysis (median follow up ~10 years) of subjects who enrolled on a prospective, non-randomized clinical trial for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. The data were originally collected for research purposes and specifically to determine PFS and OS of the investigational regimen versus historic controls. The trial has been […]

“The belief was so strong that it trumped the evidence before them.”

I was reading Palko on the 5 cent cup of coffee and spotted this: We’ve previously talked about bloggers trying to live on a food stamp budget for a week (yeah, that’s a thing). One of the many odd recurring elements of these post is a litany of complaints about life without caffeine because… I had already understood […]

On deck this week

Mon: “The belief was so strong that it trumped the evidence before them.” Tues: “Can you change your Bayesian prior?” Wed: How to analyze hierarchical survey data with post-stratification? Thurs: A political sociological course on statistics for high school students Fri: Questions about data transplanted in kidney study Sat: Performing design calculations (type M and […]

Macartan Humphreys on the Worm Wars

My Columbia political science colleague shares “What Has Been Learned from the Deworming Replications: A Nonpartisan View”: Last month there was another battle in a dispute between economists and epidemiologists over the merits of mass deworming.1 In brief, economists claim there is clear evidence that cheap deworming interventions have large effects on welfare via increased […]

On deck this week

Mon: My 2 classes this fall Tues: “Soylent 1.5” < black beans and yoghurt Wed: 0.05 is a joke Thurs: Data-analysis assignments for BDA class Fri: Aahhhhh, young people! Sat: Plaig! (non-Wegman edition) Sun: We provide a service

Hey—Don’t trust anything coming from the Tri-Valley Center for Human Potential!

Shravan sends along this article by Douglas Peters and Stephen Ceci, who report: We selected 12 already published research articles by investigators from prestigious and highly productive American psychology departments, one article from each of 12 highly regarded and widely read American psychology journals with high rejection rates (80%) and nonblind refereeing practices. With fictitious […]

Dan Kahan doesn’t trust the Turk

Dan Kahan writes: I [Kahan] think serious journals should adopt policies announcing that they won’t accept studies that use M Turk samples for types of studies they are not suited for. . . . Here is my proposal: Pending a journal’s adoption of a uniform policy on M Turk samples, the journal should should oblige […]

On deck this week

Mon: Dan Kahan doesn’t trust the Turk Tues: Neither time nor stomach Wed: Reprint of “Observational Studies” by William Cochran followed by comments by current researchers in observational studies Thurs: Hey—Don’t trust anything coming from the Tri-Valley Center for Human Potential! Fri: Harry S. Truman, Jesus H. Christ, Roy G. Biv Sat: Why couldn’t Breaking […]

The secret to making a successful conference presentation

JSM (the Joint Statistical Meetings) are coming up soon, and Jiqiang’s giving a talk on Stan. Here’s the advice I gave him: in 20 minutes, something like this: – What is Stan? – Where does Stan work well? – Current and future Stan research. For JSM audience it could be good to spend some time […]

On deck this week

Mon: The plagiarist next door strikes back: Different standards of plagiarism in different communities Tues: Pro Publica’s new Surgeon Scorecards Wed: How Hamiltonian Monte Carlo works Thurs: When does Bayes do the job? Fri: Here’s a theoretical research project for you Sat: Classifying causes of death using “verbal autopsies” Sun: All hail Lord Spiegelhalter!

Spam!

The following bit of irrelevance appeared on the stan-users mailing list: On Jun 11, 2015, at 11:29 AM, Joanna Caldwell wrote: Webinar: Tips & Tricks to Improve Your Logistic Regression . . . Registration Link: . . . Abstract: Logistic regression is a commonly used tool to analyze binary classification problems. However, logistic regression still […]

“We can keep debating this after 11 years, but I’m sure we all have much more pressing things to do (grants? papers? family time? attacking 11-year-old papers by former classmates? guitar practice?)”

Someone pointed me to this discussion by Lior Pachter of a controversial claim in biology. The statistics The statistical content has to do with a biology paper by M. Kellis, B. W. Birren, and E.S. Lander from 2004 that contains the following passage: Strikingly, 95% of cases of accelerated evolution involve only one member of […]

On deck this week

Mon: Ripped from the pages of a George Pelecanos novel Tues: “We can keep debating this after 11 years, but I’m sure we all have much more pressing things to do (grants? papers? family time? attacking 11-year-old papers by former classmates? guitar practice?)” Wed: What do I say when I don’t have much to say? […]

The 3 Stages of Busy

Last week I ran into a younger colleague who said he had a conference deadline that week and could we get together next week, maybe? So I contacted him on the weekend and asked if he was free. He responded: This week quickly got booked after last week’s NIPS deadline. So we’re meeting in another […]

On deck this week

Mon: Richard Feynman and the tyranny of measurement Tues: A bad definition of statistical significance from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Effective Health Care Program Wed: Ta-Nehisi Coates, David Brooks, and the “street code” of journalism Thurs: Flamebait: “Mathiness” in economics and political science Fri: 45 years ago in the sister blog […]

On deck for the rest of the summer and beginning of fall

Here’s some summer reading for you. The schedule may change because of the insertion of topical material, but this is the basic plan: Richard Feynman and the tyranny of measurement A bad definition of statistical significance from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Effective Health Care Program Ta-Nehisi Coates, David Brooks, and the […]

Annals of Spam

I received the following email with subject line, “Andrew, just finished ‘Foreign language skills …’”: Andrew, Just finished http://andrewgelman.com/2010/12/24/foreign_languag/ This leads to the silliness of considering foreign language skills as a purely positional good or as a method for selecting students, while forgetting the direct benefits of being able to communicate in various ways with […]

On deck this week

Mon: Don’t do the Wilcoxon Tues: Survey weighting and regression modeling Wed: Prior information, not prior belief Thurs: Draw your own graph! Fri: Measurement is part of design Sat: Annals of Spam Sun: “17 Baby Names You Didn’t Know Were Totally Made Up”