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Archive of posts filed under the Decision Theory category.

Nate Silver’s website

Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes: I believe you are aware that Nate Silver spoke at last year’s JSM and that he began a publication under ESPN (http://fivethirtyeight.com/). Do you have any opinions on the publication? Maybe some you wish to share with the public. I was hoping to hear your opinions about 538 […]

On deck this week

Mon: Correlation does not even imply correlation Tues: When doing scientific replication or criticism, collaboration with the original authors is fine but I don’t think it should be a requirement or even an expectation Wed: Scientific communication by press release Thurs: Nate Silver’s website Fri: Estimated effect of early childhood intervention downgraded from 42% to […]

The “scientific surprise” two-step

During the past year or so, we’ve been discussing a bunch of “Psychological Science”-style papers in which dramatic claims are made based on somewhat open-ended analysis of small samples with noisy measurements. One thing that comes up in some of these discussions is that the people performing the studies say that they did not fish […]

The health policy innovation center: how best to move from pilot studies to large-scale practice?

A colleague pointed me to this news article regarding evaluation of new health plans: The Affordable Care Act would fund a new research outfit evocatively named the Innovation Center to discover how to most effectively deliver health care, with $10 billion to spend over a decade. But now that the center has gotten started, many […]

The Ben Geen case: Did a naive interpretation of a cluster of cases send an innocent nurse to prison until 2035?

In a paper called “Rarity of Respiratory Arrest,” Richard Gill writes: Statistical analysis of monthly rates of events in around 20 hospitals and over a period of about 10 years shows that respiratory arrest, though about five times less frequent than cardio-respiratory arrest, is a common occurrence in the Emergency Department of a typical smaller […]

On deck this week

Mon: A linguist has a question about sampling when the goal is causal inference from observational data Tues: The Ben Geen case: Did a naive interpretation of a cluster of cases send an innocent nurse to prison until 2035? Wed: Statistics and data science, again Thurs: The health policy innovation center: how best to move […]

“An Experience with a Registered Replication Project”

Anne Pier Salverda writes: I came across this blog entry, “An Experience with a Registered Replication Project,” and thought that you would find this interesting. It’s written by Simone Schnall, a social psychologist who is the first author of an oft-cited Psych Science(!) paper (“Cleanliness reduces the severity of moral judgments”) that a group of […]

On deck this week

Mon: Skepticism about a published claim regarding income inequality and happiness Tues: Battle of the cozy comedians: What’s Alan Bennett’s problem with Stewart Lee? Wed: A world without statistics Thurs: NFL players keep getting bigger and bigger Fri: “An Experience with a Registered Replication Project” Sat, Sun: As Chris Hedges would say: Don’t worry, baby

On deck for the rest of the summer

Skepticism about a published claim regarding income inequality and happiness Battle of the cozy comedians: What’s Alan Bennett’s problem with Stewart Lee? A world without statistics NFL players keep getting bigger and bigger “An Experience with a Registered Replication Project” A linguist has a question about sampling when the goal is causal inference from observational […]

Differences between econometrics and statistics: From varying treatment effects to utilities, economists seem to like models that are fixed in stone, while statisticians tend to be more comfortable with variation

I had an interesting discussion with Peter Dorman (whose work on assessing the value of a life we discussed in this space a few years ago). The conversation started when Peter wrote me about his recent success using hierarchical modeling for risk analysis. He wrote, “Where have they [hierarchical models] been all my life? In […]