The talk is at the University of Amsterdam in the Diamantbeurs (Weesperplein 4, Amsterdam), room 5.01, at noon. Here’s the plan: Can we use Bayesian methods to resolve the current crisis of statistically-significant research findings that don’t hold up? In recent years, psychology and medicine have been rocked by scandals of research fraud. At the […]
My talk in Amsterdam tomorrow (Wed 29 Oct): Can we use Bayesian methods to resolve the current crisis of statistically-significant research findings that don’t hold up?
Max Read points to discussions by Cord Jefferson and Tim Krieger about people who write for free, thus depressing the wages of paid journalists. The topic interests me because I’m one of those people who writes for free, all the time. As a commenter wrote in response to Cord Jefferson’s article: It’s not just people […]
Amy Cohen writes: A surgeon showed me the “report card” his hospital received about his surgical group. The figure below shows what the report card looks like. I am very curious to hear what you think about the “deciles of the odds ratio” approach to evaluate and rank hospitals used by the American College of […]
Ben Highton and Matt Buttice point us to this response addressing some of the issues Jeff Lax raised in his most recent MRP post. P.S. Jeff replies in comments: It sounds like we’ve converged. They acknowledge MRP performance is significantly better on average than reported in their new paper in PA and yet performance variation […]
To recap: Matt Buttice and Ben Highton recently published an article where they evaluated multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) on a bunch of political examples estimating state-level attitudes. My Columbia colleagues Jeff Lax, Justin Phillips, and Yair Ghitza added some discussion, giving a bunch of practical tips and pointing to some problems with Buttice and […]
This one is fun because I have a double conflict of interest: I’ve been paid (at different times) both by Google and by Microsoft. Here’s the story: Microsoft, September 2012: An independent research company, Answers Research based in San Diego, CA, conducted a study using a representative online sample of nearly 1000 people, ages 18 […]
Discussion with Dan Kahan on political polarization, partisan information processing. And, more generally, the role of theory in empirical social science
It all began with this message from Dan Kahan, a law professor who does psychology experiments:
Milan Valasek writes: Psychology students (and probably students in other disciplines) are often taught that in order to perform ‘parametric’ tests, e.g. independent t-test, the data for each group need to be normally distributed. However, in literature (and various university lecture notes and slides accessible online), I have come across at least 4 different interpretation […]
Is coffee a killer? I don’t think the effect is as high as was estimated from the highest number that came out of a noisy study
Thomas Lumley writes: The Herald has a story about hazards of coffee. The picture caption says Men who drink more than four cups a day are 56 per cent more likely to die. which is obviously not true: deaths, as we’ve observed before, are fixed at one per customer. The story says It’s not that people […]
May 11, midday: Made a list of all the things I needed to do to finish the thesis. May 12, midday: Tear up the list, decide to finish it with what I had at hand. May 13, 7am: Thesis finished. It was very satisfying. Right now, I remain on a high from having implemented EP.