This is an echo of yesterday’s post, Basketball Stats: Don’t model the probability of win, model the expected score differential. As with basketball, so with baseball: as the great Bill James wrote, if you want to predict a pitcher’s win-loss record, it’s better to use last year’s ERA than last year’s W-L. As with basketball […]
Econometrics, political science, epidemiology, etc.: Don’t model the probability of a discrete outcome, model the underlying continuous variable
A few months ago I reacted (see further discussion in comments here) to a recent study on early childhood intervention, in which researchers Paul Gertler, James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto, Arianna Zanolini, Christel Vermeerch, Susan Walker, Susan M. Chang, and Sally Grantham-McGregor estimated that a particular intervention on young children had raised incomes on young adults […]
Do differences between biology and statistics explain some of our diverging attitudes regarding criticism and replication of scientific claims?
Last month we discussed an opinion piece by Mina Bissell, a nationally-recognized leader in cancer biology. Bissell argued that there was too much of a push to replicate scientific findings. I disagreed, arguing that scientists should want others to be able to replicate their research, that it’s in everyone’s interest if replication can be done […]
In a post entitled, “A holiday message from the creative class to Richard Florida — screw you,” Mark Palko argues that Florida’s famous theories about the rise of the creative class have not held up over time: Florida paints a bright picture of these people and their future, with rapidly increasing numbers, influence and wealth. […]
Somebody points me to this horrifying exposé by Paul Raeburn on a new series by the Washington Post where they reprint press releases as if they are actual news. And the gimmick is, the reason why it’s appearing on this blog, is that these are university press releases on science stories. What could possibly go […]
We had some questions on the Stan list regarding identification. The topic arose because people were fitting models with improper posterior distributions, the kind of model where there’s a ridge in the likelihood and the parameters are not otherwise constrained. I tried to help by writing something on Bayesian identifiability for the Stan list. Then […]
And we’ll throw in RStan and PyStan for free! Details here.
I saw the trailer for the new Mr. Peabody movie and it looked terrible. They used that weird animation where everything looks round, also the voice had none of the intonations of the “real” Peabody (for some reason, the trailer had the original English voices, maybe they didn’t get their act together to make a […]
I received the following email the other day: Given your past criticisms of this issue in your posts, I do not think you will like my co-authored paper, “Microfoundations of the Business Cycle and Monetary Shocks” . . . Given this lead-in, of course I had to take a look. The paper is by James […]
Into the thicket of variation: More on the political orientations of parents of sons and daughters, and a return to the tradeoff between internal and external validity in design and interpretation of research studies
We recently considered a pair of studies that came out awhile ago involving children and political orientation: Andrew Oswald and Nattavudh Powdthavee found that, in Great Britain, parents of girls were more likely to support left-wing parties, compared to parents of boys. And, in the other direction, Dalton Conley and Emily Rauscher found with survey […]