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Archive of posts filed under the Economics category.

Replication Wiki for economics

Jan Hoeffler of the University of Gottingen writes: I have been working on a replication project funded by the Institute for New Economic Thinking during the last two years and read several of your blog posts that touched the topic. We developed a wiki website that serves as a database of empirical studies, the availability […]

Understanding the hot hand, and the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the myth of the hot hand, all at the same time

Josh Miller writes: I came across your paper in the Journal of Management on unreplicable research, and in it you illustrate a point about the null hypothesis via the hot hand literature. I am writing you because I’d like to move your current prior (even if our work uses a classical approach). I am also […]

Estimated effect of early childhood intervention downgraded from 42% to 25%

Last year I came across an article, “Labor Market Returns to Early Childhood Stimulation: a 20-year Followup to an Experimental Intervention in Jamaica,” by Paul Gertler, James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto, Arianna Zanolini, Christel Vermeerch, Susan Walker, Susan M. Chang, and Sally Grantham-McGregor, that claimed that early childhood stimulation raised adult earnings by 42%. At the […]

The health policy innovation center: how best to move from pilot studies to large-scale practice?

A colleague pointed me to this news article regarding evaluation of new health plans: The Affordable Care Act would fund a new research outfit evocatively named the Innovation Center to discover how to most effectively deliver health care, with $10 billion to spend over a decade. But now that the center has gotten started, many […]

Skepticism about a published claim regarding income inequality and happiness

Frank de Libero writes: I read your Chance article (disproving that no one reads Chance!) re communicating about flawed psychological research. And I know from your other writings of your continuing good fight against misleading quantitative work. I think you and your students might be interested on my recent critique of a 2011 paper published […]

Differences between econometrics and statistics: From varying treatment effects to utilities, economists seem to like models that are fixed in stone, while statisticians tend to be more comfortable with variation

I had an interesting discussion with Peter Dorman (whose work on assessing the value of a life we discussed in this space a few years ago). The conversation started when Peter wrote me about his recent success using hierarchical modeling for risk analysis. He wrote, “Where have they [hierarchical models] been all my life? In […]

Visualizing sampling error and dynamic graphics

Robert Grant writes: What do you think of this visualisation from the NYT [in an article by Neil Irwin and Kevin Quealy but I'm not sure if they're the designers of the visualization]? I’m pretty impressed as a method of showing sampling error to a general audience! I agree. P.S. In related news, Antony Unwin […]

Estimating a customer satisfaction regression, asking only a subset of predictors for each person

Someone writes in with an interesting question: I’d like to speak with you briefly to get your thoughts on the imputation of missing data in a new online web-survey technique I’m developing. Our survey uses Split Questionnaire Design. The total number of surveys will vary in length with different customers, but will generally be between […]

More on those randomistas

Following up on our recent post, I clicked on some of Ziliak’s links and found lots of good stuff, especially the post by Berk Ozler. I have no knowledge of his work but I like his writing; see here, for example. Ziliak replied: Ozler’s post is very good indeed, and well written. Ozler’s suggestion for […]

Smullyan and the Randomistas

Steve Ziliak wrote in: I thought you might be interested in the following exchanges on randomized trials: Here are a few exchanges on the economics and ethics of randomized controlled trials, reacting to my [Zilliak's] study with Edward R. Teather-Posadas, “The Unprincipled Randomization Principle in Economics and Medicine”. Our study is forthcoming in the Oxford […]