In a news article regarding difficulties in using panel surveys to measure the unemployment rate, David Leonhardt writes: The main factor is technology. It’s a major cause of today’s response-rate problems – but it’s also the solution. For decades, survey research has revolved around the telephone, and it’s worked very well. But Americans’ relationship with […]

**Multilevel Modeling**category.

## My talk at the Simons Foundation this Wed 5pm

Anti-Abortion Democrats, Jimmy Carter Republicans, and the Missing Leap Day Babies: Living with Uncertainty but Still Learning To learn about the human world, we should accept uncertainty and embrace variation. We illustrate this concept with various examples from our recent research (the above examples are with Yair Ghitza and Aki Vehtari) and discuss more generally […]

## How does inference for next year’s data differ from inference for unobserved data from the current year?

Juliet Price writes: I recently came across your blog post from 2009 about how statistical analysis differs when analyzing an entire population rather than a sample. I understand the part about conceptualizing the problem as involving a stochastic data generating process, however, I have a query about the paragraph on ‘making predictions about future cases, […]

## “A hard case for Mister P”

Kevin Van Horn sent me an email with the above title (ok, he wrote MRP, but it’s the same idea) and the following content: I’m working on a problem that at first seemed like a clear case where multilevel modeling would be useful. As I’ve dug into it I’ve found that it doesn’t quite fit […]

## How do you interpret standard errors from a regression fit to the entire population?

James Keirstead writes: I’m working on some regressions for UK cities and have a question about how to interpret regression coefficients. . . . In a typical regression, one would be working with data from a sample and so the standard errors on the coefficients can be interpreted as reflecting the uncertainty in the choice […]

## Yummy Mr. P!

Chris Skovron writes: A colleague sent the attached image from Indonesia. For whatever reason, it seems appropriate that Mr. P is a delicious salty snack with the tagline “good times.” Indeed. MRP has made the New York Times and Indonesian snack food. What more can we ask for?

## A linguist has a question about sampling when the goal is causal inference from observational data

Nate Delaney-Busch writes: I’m a PhD student of cognitive neuroscience at Tufts, and a question came recently with my colleagues about the difficulty of random sampling in cases of highly controlled stimulus sets, and I thought I would drop a line to see if you had any reading suggestions for us. Let’s say I wanted […]

## Differences between econometrics and statistics: From varying treatment effects to utilities, economists seem to like models that are fixed in stone, while statisticians tend to be more comfortable with variation

I had an interesting discussion with Peter Dorman (whose work on assessing the value of a life we discussed in this space a few years ago). The conversation started when Peter wrote me about his recent success using hierarchical modeling for risk analysis. He wrote, “Where have they [hierarchical models] been all my life? In […]

## Stan World Cup update

The other day I fit a simple model to estimate team abilities from World Cup outcomes. I fit the model to the signed square roots of the score differentials, using the square root on the theory that when the game is less close, it becomes more variable. 0. Background As you might recall, the estimated […]

## Stan goes to the World Cup

I thought it would be fun to fit a simple model in Stan to estimate the abilities of the teams in the World Cup, then I could post everything here on the blog, the whole story of the analysis from beginning to end, showing the results of spending a couple hours on a data analysis. […]