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Archive of posts filed under the Political Science category.

Can somebody please untangle this one for us? Are centrists more, or less, supportive of democracy, compared to political extremists?

OK, this is a nice juicy problem for a political science student . . . Act 1: “Centrists Are the Most Hostile to Democracy, Not Extremists” David Adler writes in the New York Times: My research suggests that across Europe and North America, centrists are the least supportive of democracy, the least committed to its […]

Oxycontin, Purdue Pharma, the Sackler family, and the FDA

I just read this horrifying magazine article by Patrick Radden Keefe: The Family That Built an Empire of Pain: The Sackler dynasty’s ruthless marketing of painkillers has generated billions of dollars—and millions of addicts. You really have to read the whole thing, because it’s just one story after another of bad behavior, people getting rich […]

Average predictive comparisons and the All Else Equal fallacy

Annie Wang writes: I’m a law student (and longtime reader of the blog), and I’m writing to flag a variant of the “All Else Equal” fallacy in ProPublica’s article on the COMPAS Risk Recidivism Algorithm. The article analyzes how statistical risk assessments, which are used in sentencing and bail hearings, are racially biased. (Although this […]

Against Screening

Matthew Simonson writes: I have a question that may be of interest to your readers (and even if not, I’d love to hear your response). I’ve been analyzing a dataset of over 100 Middle Eastern political groups (MAROB) to see how these groups react to government repression. Observations are at the group-year level and include […]

Some experiments are just too noisy to tell us much of anything at all: Political science edition

Sointu Leikas pointed us to this published research article, “Exposure to inequality affects support for redistribution.” Leikas writes that “it seems to be a really apt example of “researcher degrees of freedom.’” Here’s the abstract of the paper: As the world’s population grows more urban, encounters between members of different socioeconomic groups occur with greater […]

Tali Sharot responds to my comments on a recent op-ed

Yesterday I posted some comments on an op-ed by by Tali Sharot and Cass Sunstein. Sharot sent the following response: I wanted to correct a few inaccuracies, which two of your commenters were quick to catch (Jeff and Dale). It seems you have 3 objections 1. “Participants did not learn about others’ opinions. There were […]

Click here to find out how these 2 top researchers hyped their work in a NYT op-ed!

Gur Huberman pointed me to this NYT op-ed entitled “Would You Go to a Republican Doctor?”, written by two professors describing their own research, that begins as follows: Suppose you need to see a dermatologist. Your friend recommends a doctor, explaining that “she trained at the best hospital in the country and is regarded as […]

Regularized Prediction and Poststratification (the generalization of Mister P)

This came up in comments recently so I thought I’d clarify the point. Mister P is MRP, multilevel regression and poststratification. The idea goes like this: 1. You want to adjust for differences between sample and population. Let y be your outcome of interest and X be your demographic and geographic variables you’d like to […]

No, there is no epidemic of loneliness. (Or, Dog Bites Man: David Brooks runs another column based on fake stats)

[adorable image] Remember David Brooks? The NYT columnist, NPR darling, and former reporter who couldn’t correctly report the price of a meal at Red Lobster? The guy who got it wrong about where billionaires come from and who thought it was fun to use one of his columns to make fun of a urologist (ha […]

Does “status threat” explain the 2016 presidential vote?

Steve Morgan writes: The April 2018 article of Diana Mutz, Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains the 2016 Presidential Vote, was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and contradicts prior sociological research on the 2016 election. Mutz’s article received widespread media coverage because of the strength of its primary conclusion, declaimed […]

A political reporter asks some questions about polling

John Kruzel from PolitiFact writes in with some questions: Readers have asked us to look into Trump’s claim that his support among African Americans doubled as a result of praise from rapper Kanye West. (Trump: “Kanye West must have some power because you probably saw, I doubled my African-American poll numbers. We went from 11 […]

We Count! The 2020 Census

Like many readers of this blog, I’m a statistician who works with Census Bureau data to answer policy questions. So I’ve been following the controversy surrounding the added citizenship question. Andy thought I should write an article for a wider audience, so I published a short piece in The Indypendent. But much more discussion could […]

A coding problem in the classic study, Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion

Gaurav Sood writes: In your 2015 piece, you mention: “In my research I’ve been strongly committed, in many different ways, to the model in which voter preferences and attitudes should be taken seriously.” One of the reasons people in political sciene think voters are confused is because of data presented in a book by Zaller—Nature […]

Early p-hacking investments substantially boost adult publication record

In a post with the title “Overstated findings, published in Science, on long-term health effects of a well-known early childhood program,” Perry Wilson writes: In this paper [“Early Childhood Investments Substantially Boost Adult Health,” by Frances Campbell, Gabriella Conti, James Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Elizabeth Pungello, and Yi Pan], published in Science in […]

A quick rule of thumb is that when someone seems to be acting like a jerk, an economist will defend the behavior as being the essence of morality, but when someone seems to be doing something nice, an economist will raise the bar and argue that he’s not being nice at all.

Like Pee Wee Herman, act like a jerk And get on the dance floor let your body work I wanted to follow up on a remark from a few years ago about the two modes of pop-economics reasoning: You take some fact (or stylized fact) about the world, and then you either (1) use people-are-rational-and-who-are-we-to-judge-others […]

Proposed new EPA rules requiring open data and reproducibility

Tom Daula points to this news article by Heidi Vogt, “EPA Wants New Rules to Rely Solely on Public Data,” with subtitle, “Agency says proposal means transparency; scientists see public-health risk.” Vogt writes: The Environmental Protection Agency plans to restrict research used in developing regulations, the agency said Tuesday . . . The new proposal […]

Taking perspective on perspective taking

Gabor Simonovits writes: I thought you might be interested in this paper with Gabor Kezdi of U Michigan and Peter Kardos of Bloomfield College, about an online intervention reducing anti-Roma prejudice and far-right voting in Hungary through a role-playing game. The paper is similar to some existing social psychology studies on perspective taking but we […]

Hey! Free money!

This just came in: On Dec 27, 2017, at 6:55 PM, **@gmail.com wrote: My name is ** and I am a freelance writer hoping to contribute my writing to andrewgelman.com. I would be willing to compensate you for publishing. For my posts, I require one related client link within the body of my article, as […]

The problem with those studies that claim large and consistent effects from small and irrelevant inputs

Dale Lehman writes: You have often critiqued those headline grabbing studies such as how news about shark attacks influence voting behavior, how the time of month/color of clothing influences voting, etc. I am in total agreement with your criticisms of this “research.” Too many confounding variables, too small sample sizes, too many forking paths, poor […]

Debate over claims of importance of spending on Obamacare advertising

Jerrod Anderson points to this post by Paul Shafer, Erika Fowler, Laura Baum, and Sarah Gollust, “Advertising cutbacks reduce Marketplace information-seeking behavior: Lessons from Kentucky for 2018.” Anderson expresses skepticism about this claim. I’ll first summarize the claims of Shafer et al. and then get to Anderson’s criticism. Shafer et al. write: The Trump administration […]