Frank de Libero writes: I read your Chance article (disproving that no one reads Chance!) re communicating about flawed psychological research. And I know from your other writings of your continuing good fight against misleading quantitative work. I think you and your students might be interested on my recent critique of a 2011 paper published […]

**Political Science**category.

## Chicago alert: Mister P and Stan to be interviewed on WBEZ today (Fri) 3:15pm

Niala Boodho on the Afternoon Shift will be interviewing Yair and me about our age-period-cohort extravaganza which became widely-known after being featured in this cool interactive graph by Amanda Cox in the New York Times. And here’s the interview. The actual paper is called The Great Society, Reagan’s revolution, and generations of presidential voting and […]

## Ma conférence 11 h, lundi 23 juin à l’Université Paris Dauphine

￼Les coalitions, le pouvoir des électeurs, et l’instabilité politique: Coalitions are central to politics, at all levels. We discuss some mathematical results relating to the stability of coalitions and the probability of a decisive vote, with connections to the prisoner’s dilemma, agent-based modeling, and probability distributions on trees. Our empirical analysis suggests that the votes […]

## Kristof/Brooks update: NYT columnists correct their mistakes!

Who will issue a correction first? Nicholas Kristof, who uncritically cited the hurricane/himmicane paper which appeared in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences but then was debunked in a stunning round of post-publication review? David Brooks, who botched some historical economic statistics and, in an unrelated incident, uncritically cited some education statistics […]

## Avoiding false parallelism in a graph

“False parallelism”—feel free to come up with a better term here—is when a graph has repeating elements that do not correspond to repeating structure in the underlying topic being graphed. An example appears in the above graphs from Dan Kahan. The content of the graphs is fine (and, more generally, I think he’s making an […]

## DataKind Opportunity Analyst Job Opening

Jake Porway writes: DataKind is looking for a brilliant part-time Opportunity Analyst to find data-informed solutions to the world’s most pressing problems with our NYC team! We’re a fast growing non-profit that tackles humanity’s biggest problems through data science. . . . We’ve helped the World Bank estimate poverty from satellite imagery, teamed with the […]

## Combining forecasts: Evidence on the relative accuracy of the simple average and Bayesian model averaging for predicting social science problems

Andreas Graefe sends along this paper (with Helmut Kuchenhoff, Veronika Stierle, and Bernhard Riedl) and writes: We summarize prior evidence from the field of economic forecasting and find that the simple average was more accurate than Bayesian model averaging in three of four studies; on average, the error of BMA was 6% higher than the […]

## Ukraine election question

Andrei Lopatenko writes: The top chart here represents the number of votes per a candidate as a function of the number of total bulletins counted. X is the total percentage of votes counted (5% means 5% of the total number of bulletins is read). Y is the percentage of votes per candidate blue Poroshenko, red […]

## The Syrian p-value that I didn’t bother to calculate

I posted something on the sister blog about the fake vote totals from the Syrian election. We know the numbers are fake from the official report, which reads: Speaker of the People’s Assembly, Mohammad Jihad al-Laham announced Wednesday that Dr. Bashar Hafez al-Assad won the post of the Syrian Arab Republic’s President for a new […]

## A whole fleet of gremlins: Looking more carefully at Richard Tol’s twice-corrected paper, “The Economic Effects of Climate Change”

We had a discussion the other day of a paper, “The Economic Effects of Climate Change,” by economist Richard Tol. The paper came to my attention after I saw a notice from Adam Marcus that it was recently revised because of data errors. But after looking at the paper more carefully, I see a bunch […]