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Archive of posts filed under the Political Science category.

Retro 1990s post

I have one more for you on the topic of jail time for fraud . . . Paul Alper points us to a news article entitled, “Michael Hubbard, Former Alabama Speaker, Sentenced to 4 Years in Prison.” From the headline this doesn’t seem like such a big deal, just run-of-the-mill corruption that we see all […]

“Most notably, the vast majority of Americans support criminalizing data fraud, and many also believe the offense deserves a sentence of incarceration.”

Justin Pickett sends along this paper he wrote with Sean Roche: Data fraud and selective reporting both present serious threats to the credibility of science. However, there remains considerable disagreement among scientists about how best to sanction data fraud, and about the ethicality of selective reporting. OK, let’s move away from asking scientists. Let’s ask […]

Over at the sister blog, they’re overinterpreting forecasts

Matthew Atkinson and Darin DeWitt write, “Economic forecasts suggest the presidential race should be a toss-up. So why aren’t Republicans doing better?” Their question arises from a juxtaposition of two apparently discordant facts: 1. “PredictWise gives the Republicans a 35 percent chance of winning the White House.” 2. A particular forecasting model (one of many […]

Causal mediation

Judea Pearl points me to this discussion with Kosuke Imai at a conference on causal mediation. I continue to think that the most useful way to think about mediation is in terms of a joint or multivariate outcome, and I continue to think that if we want to understand mediation, we need to think about […]

“Merciless Indian savages”

Paul Alper writes:

Americans (used to) love world government

Sociologist David Weakliem writes: It appears that an overwhelming majority of Americans who have an opinion on the subject think that Britain should remain in the European Union. But how many would support the United States joining an organization like the EU? My guess is very few. But back in 1946, the Gallup Poll asked […]

Horrible attack in Turkey

I don’t have anything to say about this, nor I think did I blog on the attacks in Florida or Paris or all the terrible things going on in the Middle East every day. It’s not my area of expertise and I don’t have anything particular to add. I’m only posting this note here because […]

Broken broken windows policy?

A journalist pointed me to this recent report from the New York City Department of Investigation, which begins: Between 2010 and 2015, the New York City Police Department (NYPD) issued 1,839,414 “quality-of-life” summonses for offenses such as public urination, disorderly conduct, drinking alcohol in public, and possession of small amounts of marijuana. . . . […]

How is Brexit different than Texit, Quexit, or Scotxit?

Here’s a news item: Emboldened by Brexit, U.S. secessionists in Texas are keen to adopt the campaign tactics used to sway the British vote for leaving the European Union and are demanding “Texit” comes next. . . . “The Texas Nationalist Movement is formally calling on the Texas governor to support a similar vote for […]

Brexit polling: What went wrong?

Commenter numeric writes: Since you were shilling for yougov the other day you might want to talk about their big miss on Brexit (off by 6% from their eve-of-election poll—remain up 2 on their last poll and leave up by 4 as of this posting). Fair enough: Had Yougov done well, I could use them […]

YouGov uses Mister P for Brexit poll

Ben Lauderdale and Doug Rivers give the story: There has been a lot of noise in polling on the upcoming EU referendum. Unlike the polls before the 2015 General Election, which were in almost perfect agreement (though, of course, not particularly close to the actual outcome), this time the polls are in serious disagreement. Telephone […]

Why I don’t believe the claim that Fox News can get Trump elected

Full story in the sister blog. Short story is that some economists did some out-of-control extrapolations. More of my recent sister blog entries here.

Difficulty of communication in our supersaturated media environment

Gregory Gelembiuk writes: I was wondering if you might take a look at this and, if so inclined, do some public shredding. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6mLpCEIGEYGYl9RZWFRcmpsZk0/view?pref=2&pli=1 http://www.snopes.com/stanford-study-proves-election-fraud-through-exit-poll-discrepancies/ http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2016/6/13/11420/5989 Claims of electoral fraud have become increasingly popular among political progressives in the last several years and, unfortunately, appear to be gaining critical mass (especially with Sanders’ loss). The “study” […]

Comment on network analysis of online ISIS activity

Two different journalists asked me about this paper, “New online ecology of adversarial aggregates: ISIS and beyond,” N. F. Johnson, M. Zheng, Y. Vorobyeva, A. Gabriel, H. Qi, N. Velasquez, P. Manrique, D. Johnson, E. Restrepo, C. Song, S. Wuchty, a paper that begins: Support for an extremist entity such as Islamic State (ISIS) somehow […]

You’ll never guess what I’ll say about this paper claiming election fraud! (OK, actually probably you can guess.)

Glenn Chisholm writes: As a frequent visitor of your blog (a bit of a long time listener first time caller comment I know) I saw this particular controversy: Summary: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6mLpCEIGEYGYl9RZWFRcmpsZk0/view?pref=2&pli=1 Very superficial analysis: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SdmBLFW9gISaqOyyz_fATgaFupI2-n6vWx80XRGUVBo/edit?pref=2&pli=1 and was interested if I could get you to blog on its actual statistic foundations, this particular paper has at least […]

“Smaller Share of Women Ages 65 and Older Are Living Alone,” before and after age adjusment

After noticing this from a recent Pew Research report: Ben Hanowell wrote: This made me [Hanowell] think of your critique of Case and Deaton’s finding about non-Hispanic mortality. I wonder how much these results are driven by the fact that the population of adults aged 65 and older has gotten older with increasing lifespans, etc […]

They threatened to sue Mike Spagat but that’s not shutting him up

Mike Spagat, famous for blowing the whistle on that Iraq survey (the so-called Lancet study) ten years ago, writes: I’ve just put up the story about how a survey research company threatened to sue me to keep me quiet. I’ve also put up a lot of data that readers can analyse if they want to […]

No, I’m not convinced by this one either.

Alex Gamma sends along a recently published article by Carola Salvi, Irene Cristofori, Jordan Grafman, and Mark Beeman, along with the note: This might be of interest to you, since it’s political science and smells bad. From The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology: Two groups of 22 college students each identified as conservatives or liberals […]

Racial classification sociology controversy update

The other day I posted on a controversy in sociology where Aliya Saperstein and Andrew Penner analyzed data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, coming to the conclusion that “that race is not a fixed characteristic of individuals but is flexible and continually negotiated in everyday interactions,” but then Lance Hannon and Robert DeFina […]

Donald Trump and Joe McCarthy

He built . . . a coalition of the aggrieved—of men and women not deranged but affronted by various tendencies over the previous two or three decades . . . That’s political reporter Richard Rovere in his 1958 classic, “Senator Joe McCarthy.” I hate to draw an analogy between McCarthy and Donald Trump because it […]