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Archive of posts filed under the Political Science category.

Econometrics, political science, epidemiology, etc.: Don’t model the probability of a discrete outcome, model the underlying continuous variable

This is an echo of yesterday’s post, Basketball Stats: Don’t model the probability of win, model the expected score differential. As with basketball, so with baseball: as the great Bill James wrote, if you want to predict a pitcher’s win-loss record, it’s better to use last year’s ERA than last year’s W-L. As with basketball […]

Postdoc with Huffpost Pollster to do Bayesian poll tracking

Mark Blumenthal writes: HuffPost Pollster has an immediate opening for a social and data scientist to join us full time, preferably in our Washington D.C. bureau, to work on development and improvement of our poll tracking models and political forecasts. You are someone who has: * A passion for electoral politics, * Advanced training in […]

Florida backlash

In a post entitled, “A holiday message from the creative class to Richard Florida — screw you,” Mark Palko argues that Florida’s famous theories about the rise of the creative class have not held up over time: Florida paints a bright picture of these people and their future, with rapidly increasing numbers, influence and wealth. […]

More on US health care overkill

Paul Alper writes: You recently posted my moving and widening the goalposts contention. In it, I mentioned “how diagnoses increase markedly while deaths are flatlined” indicating that we are being overdiagnosed and overtreated. Above are 5 frightening graphs which illustrate the phenomenon. Defenders of the system might (ludicrously) contend that it is precisely the aggressive […]

Recently in the sister blog

Are we becoming more tolerant of nepotism? Republicans have a 54 percent chance of taking the Senate The denominator fallacy rears its ugly head How better educated whites are driving political polarization Controversial claims about marriage promotion break the statistical rules of evidence The importance of knowing a dodo is a bird

Into the thicket of variation: More on the political orientations of parents of sons and daughters, and a return to the tradeoff between internal and external validity in design and interpretation of research studies

We recently considered a pair of studies that came out awhile ago involving children and political orientation: Andrew Oswald and Nattavudh Powdthavee found that, in Great Britain, parents of girls were more likely to support left-wing parties, compared to parents of boys. And, in the other direction, Dalton Conley and Emily Rauscher found with survey […]

“Questioning The Lancet, PLOS, And Other Surveys On Iraqi Deaths, An Interview With Univ. of London Professor Michael Spagat”

Mike Spagat points to this interview, which, he writes, covers themes that are discussed on the blog such as wrong ideas that don’t die, peer review and the statistics of conflict deaths. I agree. It’s good stuff. Here are some of the things that Spagat says (he’s being interviewed by Joel Wing): In fact, the […]

History is too important to be left to the history professors

From Thomas Laqueur, the Helen Fawcett professor of history at the University of California, reviewing a book by Christopher Clark: [As of 6 July 1914, the German] army made no plans for a general war; the kaiser believed the war would be localized. . . . A last small chance at least to contain a […]

Best blog comment ever

Go here and scroll down to the comment by “hokiesuck.” P.S. Some people report that they can’t get to the comments on the Monkey Cage blog, so I’ll repost it here:

The Commissar for Traffic presents the latest Five-Year Plan

What do Paul Samuelson and the U.S. Department of Transportation have in common? Phil Price points us to this news article by Clark Williams-Derry: As the State Smart Transportation Initiative at the University of Wisconsin points out, the US Department of Transportation has been making the virtually identical vehicle travel forecasts for well over a […]