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Archive of posts filed under the Sports category.

Molyneux expresses skepticism on hot hand

Guy Molyneux writes: I saw your latest post on the hot hand too late to contribute to the discussion there. While I don’t disagree with your critique of Gilovich and his reluctance to acknowledge past errors, I do think you underestimate the power of the evidence against a meaningful hot hand effect in sports. I […]

The Las Vegas Odds

Kevin Lewis suggests the above name for pro football’s newest team, after hearing that “The NFL is letting the Oakland Raiders move to Las Vegas, a move once nearly unthinkable due to its opposition to sports gambling.” Is there anyone good at graphic design who’d like to design a logo? I’m not sure what images […]

Time Inc. stoops to the level of the American Society of Human Genetics and PPNAS?

You Won’t BELIEVE How Trump Broke Up This Celebrity Couple!

A few months ago I asked if it was splitsville for tech zillionaire Peter Thiel and chess champion Garry Kasparov, after seeing this quote from Kasparov in April: Trump sells the myth of American success instead of the real thing. . . . It’s tempting to rally behind him-but we should resist. Because the New […]

Low correlation of predictions and outcomes is no evidence against hot hand

Josh Miller (of Miller & Sanjurjo) writes: On correlations, you know, the original Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky paper found that the Cornell players’ “predictions” of their teammates’ shots correlated 0.04, on average. No evidence they can see the hot hand, right? Here is an easy correlation question: suppose Bob shoots with probability ph=.55 when he […]

Hey, I forgot to include a cat picture in my previous post!

Josh Miller fixes it for me:

a2

Wow. P.S. In the comment thread, Peter Dorman has an interesting discussion of Carlsen’s errors so far during the tournament.

Josh Miller hot hand talks in NYC and Pittsburgh this week

Joshua Miller (the person who, with Adam Sanjurjo, discovered why the so-called “hot hand fallacy” is not really a fallacy) will be speaking on the topic this week. In New York, Thurs 17 Nov, 12:30pm, 19 W 4th St, room 517, Center for Experimental Social Science seminar. In Pittsburgh, Fri 18 Nov, 12pm, 4716 Posvsar […]

“The Warriors suck”: A Bayesian exploration

A basketball fan of my close acquaintance woke up Wednesday morning and, upon learning the outcome of the first games of the NBA season, announced that “The Warriors suck.” Can we answer this question? To put it more precisely, how much information is supplied by that first-game-of-season blowout? Speaking Bayesianly, who much should we adjust […]

Some people are so easy to contact and some people aren’t.

I was reading Cowboys Full, James McManus’s entertaining history of poker (but way too much on the so-called World Series of Poker), and I skimmed the index to look up some of my favorite poker writers. Frank Wallace and David Spanier were both there but only got brief mentions in the text, I was disappointed […]

No, I don’t think the Super Bowl is lowering birth weights

In a news article entitled, “Inequality might start before we’re even born,” Carolyn Johnson reports: Another study, forthcoming in the Journal of Human Resources, analyzed birth outcomes in counties where the home team goes to the Super Bowl. . . . The researchers found that women in their first trimester whose home team played in […]

Astroturf “patient advocacy” group pushes to keep drug prices high

Susan Perry tells the story: Patients Rising, [reporter Trudy Lieberman] reports, was founded by Jonathan Wilcox, a corporate communications and public relations consultant and adjunct professor at USC’s Annenberg School of Communications and his wife, Terry, a producer of oncology videos. . . . Both Wilcox and his wife had worked with Vital Options International, […]

Don’t trust Rasmussen polls!

Political scientist Alan Abramowitz brings us some news about the notorious pollster: In the past 12 months, according to Real Clear Politics, there have been 72 national polls matching Clinton with Trump—16 polls conducted by Fox News or Rasmussen and 56 polls conducted by other polling organizations. Here are the results: Trump has led or […]

I refuse to blog about this one

Shravan points me to this article, Twitter Language Use Reflects Psychological Differences between Democrats and Republicans, which begins with the following self-parody of an abstract: Previous research has shown that political leanings correlate with various psychological factors. While surveys and experiments provide a rich source of information for political psychology, data from social networks can […]

Stan wins again!

See here.

NBA in NYC

Jason Rosenfeld writes: We’re holding the first ever NBA Basketball Analytics Hackathon on Saturday, September 24 at Terminal 23 in midtown Manhattan. I can’t guarantee that Bugs will be there, but ya never know!

George Orwell on the Olympics

From 1945: If you wanted to add to the vast fund of ill-will existing in the world at this moment, you could hardly do it better than by a series of football matches between Jews and Arabs, Germans and Czechs, Indians and British, Russians and Poles, and Italians and Jugoslavs, each match to be watched […]

Shameless little bullies claim that published triathlon times don’t replicate

Paul Alper sends along this inspiring story of Julie Miller, a heroic triathlete who just wants to triathle in peace, but she keeps getting hassled by the replication police. Those shameless little bullies won’t let her just do her thing, instead they harp on technicalities like missing timing clips and crap like that. Who cares […]

Should this paper in Psychological Science be retracted? The data do not conclusively demonstrate the claim, nor do they provide strong evidence in favor. The data are, however, consistent with the claim (as well as being consistent with no effect)

Retractions or corrections of published papers are rare. We routinely encounter articles with fatal flaws, but it is so rare that such articles are retracted that it’s news when it happens. Retractions sometimes happen at the request of the author (as in the link above, or in my own two retracted/corrected articles) and other times […]

Euro 2016 update

Big news out of Europe, everyone’s talking about soccer. Leo Egidi updated his model and now has predictions for the Round of 16: Here’s Leo’s report, and here’s his zipfile with data and Stan code. The report contains some ugly histograms showing the predictive distributions of goals to be scored in each game. The R […]