Skip to content
Archive of posts filed under the Sports category.

Generable: They’re building software for pharma, with Stan inside.

Daniel Lee writes: We’ve just launched our new website. Generable is where precision medicine meets statistical machine learning. We are building a state-of-the-art platform to make individual, patient-level predictions for safety and efficacy of treatments. We’re able to do this by building Bayesian models with Stan. We currently have pilots with AstraZeneca, Sanofi, and University […]

How jet lag impairs major league statistical performance

Kyle Meyer writes: Last August you wrote about [1] a PNAS paper that looked at “jet lag” and a bunch of metrics across twenty MLB seasons. I’ve played around with incorporating their measure of jet lag into a model of run differentials [2], working from your posts about estimating team abilities in soccer [3-5]. I […]

“If I wanted to graduate in three years, I’d just get a sociology degree.”

From an interview with a UCLA QB who’s majoring in economics: Look, football and school don’t go together. They just don’t. Trying to do both is like trying to do two full-time jobs. . . . No one in their right mind should have a football player’s schedule, and go to school. It’s not that […]

“Deeper into democracy: the legitimacy of challenging Brexit’s majoritarian mandate”

There’s no reason that we should trust someone’s thoughts on politics just because he’s a good chess player, or even a good writer. That said, I found this opinion piece by Jonathan Rowson on Britain and the EU to be worth reading. Also I came across this short post by Rowson on “virtue signaling” which […]

“Heating Up in NBA Free Throw Shooting”

Paul Pudaite writes: I demonstrate that repetition heats players up, while interruption cools players down in NBA free throw shooting. My analysis also suggests that fatigue and stress come into play. If, as seems likely, all four of these effects have comparable impact on field goal shooting, they would justify strategic choices throughout a basketball […]

Here’s a post with a Super Bowl theme.

Kevin Lewis pointed me to an article in the Journal of the American Medical Association, using the email subject line, “Not statistically significant, but close.” The article in question, by Atheendar Venkataramani, Maheer Gandhavadi, and Anupam Jena, is called, “Association Between Playing American Football in the National Football League and Long-term Mortality,” and it reports: […]

Popular expert explains why communists can’t win chess championships!

[cat picture] We haven’t run any Ray Keene material for awhile but this is just too good to pass up: Yup, those communists have real trouble pushing to the top when it comes to chess, huh? P.S. to Chrissy: If you happen to be reading this, my advice to you is to not take stuff […]

A new definition of the nerd?

Jonathan Falk points to this book excerpt by Michael Lewis, who writes: A lot of what people did and said when they “predicted” things, Morey now realized, was phony: pretending to know things rather than actually knowing things. There were a great many interesting questions in the world to which the only honest answer was, […]

High five: “Now if it is from 2010, I think we can make all sorts of assumptions about the statistical methods without even looking.”

Eric Tassone writes: Have you seen this? “Suns Tracking High Fives to Measure Team Camaraderie.” Key passage:

Why you can’t simply estimate the hot hand using regression

Jacob Schumaker writes: Reformed political scientist, now software engineer here. Re: the hot hand fallacy fallacy from Miller and Sanjurjo, has anyone discussed why a basic regression doesn’t solve this? If they have I haven’t seen it. The idea is just that there are other ways of measuring the hot hand. When I think of […]

If you want to know about basketball, who ya gonna trust, a mountain of p-values . . . or that poseur Phil Jackson??

Someone points me with amusement to this published article from 2012: Beliefs About the “Hot Hand” in Basketball Across the Adult Life Span Alan Castel, Aimee Drolet Rossi, and Shannon McGillivray University of California, Los Angeles Many people believe in streaks. In basketball, belief in the “hot hand” occurs when people think a player is […]

Why I think the top batting average will be higher than .311: Over-pooling of point predictions in Bayesian inference

In a post from 22 May 2017 entitled, “Who is Going to Win the Batting Crown?”, Jim Albert writes: At this point in the season, folks are interested in extreme stats and want to predict final season measures. On the morning of Saturday May 20, here are the leading batting averages: Justin Turner .379 Ryan […]

Baseball, apple pie, and Stan

Ben sends along these two baseball job ads that mention experience with Stan as a preferred qualification: St. Louis Cardinals Baseball Development Analyst Tampa Bay Rays Baseball Research and Development Analyst

Does racquetball save lives?

Asher Meir points to this news report and writes: 8e5 people in study, about half reported exercising, about half not. About 10% died overall. So overall death rate difference of 28% is pretty remarkable. It means about 3500 deaths instead of 4500 for a similar sample size. But when you compare the rate of heart […]

Further evidence that creativity and innovation are stimulated by college sports: Evidence from a big regression

Kevin Lewis sent along this paper from the Creativity Research Journal: Further Evidence that Creativity and Innovation are Inhibited by Conservative Thinking: Analyses of the 2016 Presidential Election The investigation replicated and extended previous research showing a negative relationship between conservatism and creative accomplishment. Conservatism was estimated, as in previous research, from voting patterns. The […]

Chess records page

Chess records page (no, not on the first page, or the second page, or the third page, of a google search of *chess records*). There’s lots of good stuff here, enough to fill much of a book if you so desire. As we’ve discussed, chess games are in the public domain so if you take […]

Will Stanton hit 61 home runs this season?

[edit: Juho Kokkala corrected my homework. Thanks! I updated the post. Also see some further elaboration in my reply to Andrew’s comment. As Andrew likes to say …] So far, Giancarlo Stanton has hit 56 home runs in 555 at bats over 149 games. Miami has 10 games left to play. What’s the chance he’ll […]

As if the 2010s never happened

E. J. writes: I’m sure I’m not the first to send you this beauty. Actually, E. J., you’re the only one who sent me this! It’s a news article, “Can the fear of death instantly make you a better athlete?”, reporting on a psychology experiment: For the first study, 31 male undergraduates who liked basketball […]

SCANDAL: Florida State University football players held to the same low standards as George Mason University statistics faculty

Paul Alper points us to this news report: As the Florida State University football team was marching to a national title in the fall of 2013, the school was investigating allegations of academic favoritism involving a half-dozen of its leading players . . . The inquiry, previously unreported, stemmed from a complaint by a teaching […]

Chris Moore, Guy Molyneux, Etan Green, and David Daniels on Bayesian umpires

Kevin Lewis points us to a paper by Etan Green and David Daniels, who conclude that “decisions of [baseball] umpires reflect an accurate, probabilistic, and state-specific understanding of their rational expectations—as well as an ability to integrate those prior beliefs in a manner that approximates Bayes rule.” This is similar to what was found in […]