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Archive of posts filed under the Sports category.

What’s the probability that Daniel Murphy hits a home run tonight?

20% 15%, that’s my quick empirical estimate. Where do I get this? I googled *most home runs hit in consecutive games* and found this list of players who’ve hit home runs in at least six consecutive games. There are 20 such cases; 14 of these streaks ended at six games, and 6 of these streaks […]

Explaining to Gilovich about the hot hand

X points me to this news article by George Johnson regarding the hot hand in basketball. Nothing new since the previous hot hand report (also Johnson follows the usual newspaper convention of not citing the earlier article in the Wall Street Journal, instead simply linking back to the Miller and Sanjurjo article as if it […]

Hot hand explanation again

I guess people really do read the Wall Street Journal . . . Edward Adelman sent me the above clipping and calculation and writes: What am I missing? I do not see the 60%. And Richard Rasiej sends me a longer note making the same point: So here I am, teaching another statistics class, this […]


I don’t know if he has to say that this body type are actually better for a baseball player. Maybe it’s enough to just make the case that, Moneyball-style, players with this shape are underrated. P.S. I still don’t see why James chose in his book to summarize players by games played, home runs, RBI, […]

“Dow 36,000” guy offers an opinion on Tom Brady’s balls. The rest of us are supposed to listen?

Football season is returning so it’s time for us to return to that favorite statistical topic from the past football season: Tom Brady’s deflated balls. Back in June, Jonathan Falk pointed me to this report. You can click through if you’d like and take a look. I didn’t bother reading it because it had no […]

The plagiarist (not; see correction below) next door strikes back: Different standards of plagiarism in different communities

Commenters on this blog sometimes tell me not to waste so much time talking about plagiarism. And in the grand scheme of things, what could be more trivial than plagiarism copying of errors with unclear citations in an obscure German book of chess anecdotes? Yet this is what I have come to talk with you […]

Hey—guess what? There really is a hot hand!

No, it’s not April 1, and yup, I’m serious. Josh Miller came into my office yesterday and convinced me that the hot hand is real. Here’s the background. Last year we posted a discussion on streakiness in basketball shooting. Miller has a new paper out, with Adam Sanjurjo, which begins: We find a subtle but […]

“Menstrual Cycle Phase Does Not Predict Political Conservatism”

Someone pointed me to this article by Isabel Scott and Nicholas Pound: Recent authors have reported a relationship between women’s fertility status, as indexed by menstrual cycle phase, and conservatism in moral, social and political values. We conducted a survey to test for the existence of a relationship between menstrual cycle day and conservatism. 2213 […]

“Faith means belief in something concerning which doubt is theoretically possible.” — William James (again)

Eric Tassone writes: So, here’s a Bill James profile from late-ish 2014 that I’d missed until now. It’s baseball focused, which was nice — so many recent articles about him are non-baseball stuff. Here’s an extended excerpt of a part I found refreshing, though it’s probably just that my expectations have gotten pretty low of […]

A question about race based stratification

Can Candan writes: I have scraped horse racing data from a web site in Turkey and would like to try some models for predicting the finishing positions of future races, what models would you suggest for that? There is one recent paper on the subject that seems promising, which claims to change the SMO algorithm […]

Chess + statistics + plagiarism, again!

In response to this post (in which I noted that the Elo chess rating system is a static model which, paradoxically, is used to for the purposes of studying changes), Keith Knight writes: It’s notable that Glickman’s work is related to some research by Harry Joe at UBC, which in turn was inspired by data […]

Adiabatic as I wanna be: Or, how is a chess rating like classical economics?

Chess ratings are all about change. Did your rating go up, did it go down, have you reached 2000, who’s hot, who’s not, and so on. If nobody’s abilities were changing, chess ratings would be boring, they’d be nothing but a noisy measure, and watching your rating change would be as exciting as watching a […]

The 1980 Math Olympiad Program: Where are they now?

Brian Hunt: He was the #1 math team kid in our team (Montgomery County, Maryland). I think he came in first place in the international olympiad the next year (yup, here’s the announcement). We carpooled once or twice to county math team practices, and I remember that his mom would floor it rather than slow […]

Statistics job opening . . . at the NBA!

Jason Rosenfeld writes: I work for the NBA League Office headquarters in New York City. I’m the Director of Basketball Analytics here at the NBA, and I’m again recruiting analysts. More information on the roles I’m trying to fill can be found here ( I’m open to both undergraduate and graduate students. I’d be perfect […]

Two Unrecognized Hall Of Fame Shortstops

Michael Humphreys writes: Thought you might be interested in or might like to link to the following article. The statistical rigor is obviously not at a professional level, but pitched somewhere around the Bill Jamesian level. Here’s the link. This sort of thing makes me realize how out of it I am, when it comes […]

The plagiarist (not; see correction below) next door

In a comment on this chess-related post, Matt Gaffney pointed me to this wonderful page full of chess curiosities by Tim Krabbé. My nederlands is not what it used to be, but Krabbé has posted lots of material in English so that’s no problem. I started reading his “Open chess diary” (i.e., blog), it’s updated […]

Crowdsourcing data analysis: Do soccer referees give more red cards to dark skin toned players?

Raphael Silberzahn Eric Luis Uhlmann Dan Martin Pasquale Anselmi Frederik Aust Eli Christopher Awtrey Štěpán Bahník Feng Bai Colin Bannard Evelina Bonnier Rickard Carlsson Felix Cheung Garret Christensen Russ Clay Maureen A. Craig Anna Dalla Rosa Lammertjan Dam Mathew H. Evans Ismael Flores Cervantes Nathan Fong Monica Gamez-Djokic Andreas Glenz Shauna Gordon-McKeon Tim Heaton Karin […]

Debate on using margin of error with non-probability panels

Tomorrow (Thurs 22 Jan) at 2pm, I’m participating (along with Jane Tang, John Bremer, Nancy Brigham, and Steve Mossup) on an online discussion, moderated by Annie Pettit, on the above topic. Here’s the description: Most marketing researchers know that using Margin of Error with convenience samples, non-probability samples, and online research panels is inappropriate. However, […]

Stan comes through . . . again!

Erikson Kaszubowski writes in: I missed your call for Stan research stories, but the recent post about stranded dolphins mentioned it again. When I read about the Crowdstorming project in your blog, I thought it would be a good project to apply my recent studies in Bayesian modeling. The project coordinators shared a big dataset […]

Try answering this question without heading to Wikipedia

Phil writes: This is kind of fun (at least for me): You would probably guess, correctly, that membership in the US Chess Federation is lower than its peak. Guess the year of peak membership, and the decline (as a percentage) in the number of members from that peak. My reply: I don’t know, but I’d […]