The other day I fit a simple model to estimate team abilities from World Cup outcomes. I fit the model to the signed square roots of the score differentials, using the square root on the theory that when the game is less close, it becomes more variable. 0. Background As you might recall, the estimated […]

**Stan**category.

## Stan London Meetup 16 July

Michael Betancourt announces: The Stan Development Team is happy to announce the first Stan London Meetup, Wednesday, July 16th, 6-8 PM Bentham House, Seminar Room 4 4-8 Endsleigh Gardens, London, WC1H 0EG Nominally the plan is to begin with a casual introduction to Stan and then break out into discussion based on the interests of […]

## Stan goes to the World Cup

I thought it would be fun to fit a simple model in Stan to estimate the abilities of the teams in the World Cup, then I could post everything here on the blog, the whole story of the analysis from beginning to end, showing the results of spending a couple hours on a data analysis. […]

## Chicago alert: Mister P and Stan to be interviewed on WBEZ today (Fri) 3:15pm

Niala Boodho on the Afternoon Shift will be interviewing Yair and me about our age-period-cohort extravaganza which became widely-known after being featured in this cool interactive graph by Amanda Cox in the New York Times. And here’s the interview. The actual paper is called The Great Society, Reagan’s revolution, and generations of presidential voting and […]

## Grand Opening: The Stan Shop

I finally put together a shop so everyone can order Stan t-shirts and mugs: The Stan Shop The art’s by Michael Malecki. The t-shirts and mugs are printed on demand by Spreadshirt. I tried out a sample and the results are great and have held up to machine washing and drying. There’s a markup of […]

## Who invented the Metropolis algorithm?

Paul Alper writes: I found this at the 15:57 mark of one of Bill Press’s videos but do not know if this bit of history is well known in the MCMC universe. This is Marshall Rosenbluth criticizing Metropolis (and others). The text is taken from an interview of Rosenbluth in 2003 by Kai-Henrik Barth: Barth: […]

## Comment of the week

This one, from DominikM: Really great, the simple random intercept – random slope mixed model I did yesterday now runs at least an order of magnitude faster after installing RStan 2.3 this morning. You are doing an awesome job, thanks a lot!

## (Py, R, Cmd) Stan 2.3 Released

We’re happy to announce RStan, PyStan and CmdStan 2.3. Instructions on how to install at: http://mc-stan.org/ As always, let us know if you’re having problems or have comments or suggestions. We’re hoping to roll out the next release a bit quicker this time, because we have lots of good new features that are almost ready […]

## Ma conférence 11 h, lundi 23 juin à l’Université Paris Dauphine

￼Les coalitions, le pouvoir des électeurs, et l’instabilité politique: Coalitions are central to politics, at all levels. We discuss some mathematical results relating to the stability of coalitions and the probability of a decisive vote, with connections to the prisoner’s dilemma, agent-based modeling, and probability distributions on trees. Our empirical analysis suggests that the votes […]

## Stan hands-on introduction in NYC Tues 24 Jun 7pm

Ben Goodrich, one of the Stan developers, will be leading the session. Bring a laptop, if that’s what you’re working on. We’ll cover: • installation of CmdStan, RStan, and possibly PyStan (if we can find an expert) • work through parts of the Stan language through a few models Signup information is here. Anyone who’s […]