AT points me to this column by Andrew Leonard, who writes:
I [Leonard] asked my readers to explain Felix Salmon’s statement that “I’d say p=0.3 right now that Barack Obama’s first major act as POTUS will be the nationalization of Citigroup.”
What follows are some amusing quotes, including this one from Kobi “diagnostics for multiple imputations” Abayomi:
People pick a cutoff — arbitrarily, really — and a p-value lower than the cutoff is pronounced “Significant.” Alchemy! . . . p-values are a bit passe, if not completely gauche — statistically speaking. Modelling, these days, is more particular (if not exact). Macho statisticians are proud of tight (posterior (bayesian)) confidence intervals. Real men keep p-values to themselves.
I think there’s some confusion here. Leonard’s correspondents were making things too complicated. Salmon was using “p” as jargon to represent “probability,” not “p-value.” Thus, he was saying that he saw it as a 3 in 10 chance that Obama’s first major act would be to nationalize Citigroup. Everybody is so hot under the collar about p-values that they didn’t notice the direct interpretation.
I saw that too. While I agree "p" meant probability, the misunderstanding was worth it to see: "Real men keep p-values to themselves."
Hmmm… I wonder what an unreal man is and what fake men do.
I know, unreal men just don't know anything about p-values.
Not to mention the gratuitous sexism….
Now that Abayomi mentions it, I am proud of my tight Bayesian posterior. Muy macho! (Achieving it was an iterative exercise.)