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Limitations of “Limitations of Bayesian Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation for Model Selection”

“If you will believe in your heart and confess with your lips, surely you will be saved one day” – The Mountain Goats paraphrasing Romans 10:9 One of the weird things about working with people a lot is that it doesn’t always translate into multiple opportunities to see them talk.  I’m pretty sure the only […]

Against Arianism 2: Arianism Grande

“There’s the part you’ve braced yourself against, and then there’s the other part” – The Mountain Goats My favourite genre of movie is Nicole Kidman in a questionable wig. (Part of the sub-genre founded by Sarah Paulson, who is the patron saint of obvious wigs.) And last night I was in the same room* as […]

Against Arianism

“I need some love like I’ve never needed love before” – Geri, Mel C, Mel B, Victoria, Emma (noted Arianists)  I spent most of today on a sequence of busses shuttling between cities in Ontario, so I’ve been thinking a lot about fourth century heresies.  That’s an obvious lie. But I think we all know […]

Amelia, it was just a false alarm

Nah, jet fuel can’t melt steel beams. I’ve watched enough conspiracy documentaries – Camp Cope Some ideas persist long after the mounting evidence against them becomes overwhelming. Some of these things are kooky but probably harmless (try as I might, I do not care about ESP etc), whereas some are deeply damaging (I’m looking at you “vaccines […]

In my role as professional singer and ham

Pryor unhooks the deer’s skull from the wall above his still-curled-up companion. Examines it. Not a good specimen –the back half of the lower jaw’s missing, a gap that, with the open cranial cavity, makes room enough for Pryor’s head. He puts it on. – Will Eaves, Murmur So as we roll into the last […]

I am the supercargo

In a form of sympathetic magic, many built life-size replicas of airplanes out of straw and cut new military-style landing strips out of the jungle, hoping to attract more airplanes. – Wikipedia Twenty years ago, Geri Halliwell left the Spice Girls, so I’ve been thinking about Cargo Cults a lot. As an analogy for what […]

Opportunity for Comment!

(This is Dan) Last September, Jonah, Aki, Michael, Andrew and I wrote a paper on the role of visualization in the Bayesian workflow.  This paper is going to be published as a discussion paper in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A and the associated read paper meeting (where we present the paper and […]

One good and one bad response to statistics’ diversity problem

(This is Dan) As conference season rolls into gear, I thought I’d write a short post contrasting some responses by statistical societies to the conversation that the community has been having about harassment of women and minorities at workshops and conferences. ISI: Do what I say, not what I do Let’s look at a different diversity […]

Zero-excluding priors are probably a bad idea for hierarchical variance parameters

(This is Dan, but in quick mode) I was on the subway when I saw Andrew’s last post and it doesn’t strike me as a particularly great idea. So let’s take a look at the suggestion for 8 schools using a centred parameterization.  This is not as comprehensive as doing a proper simulation study, but […]

You better check yo self before you wreck yo self

We (Sean Talts, Michael Betancourt, Me, Aki, and Andrew) just uploaded a paper (code available here) that outlines a framework for verifying that an algorithm for computing a posterior distribution has been implemented correctly. It is easy to use, straightforward to implement, and ready to be implemented as part of a Bayesian workflow. This type of […]

Justify my love

When everyone starts walking around the chilly streets of Toronto looking like they’re cosplaying the last 5 minutes of Call Me By Your Name, you know that Spring is in the air. Let’s celebrate the end of winter by pulling out our Liz Phair records, our slightly less-warm coats, and our hunger for long reads […]

What is not but could be if

And if I can remain there I will say – Baby Dee Obviously this is a blog that love the tabloids. But as we all know, the best stories are the ones that confirm your own prior beliefs (because those must be true).  So I’m focussing on  this article in Science that talks about how STEM […]

Anybody want a drink before the war?

Your lallies look like darts, and you’ve got nanti carts, but I love your bona eke – Lee Sutton (A near miss) I’ve been thinking about gayface again. I guess this is for a bunch of reasons, but one of the lesser ones is that this breathless article by JD Schramm popped up in the Washington Post the other […]

Eid ma clack shaw zupoven del ba.

When I say “I love you”, you look accordingly skeptical – Frida Hyvönen A few years back, Bill Callahan wrote a song about the night he dreamt the perfect song. In a fever, he woke and wrote it down before going back to sleep. The next morning, as he struggled to read his handwriting, he saw […]

The difference between me and you is that I’m not on fire

“Eat what you are while you’re falling apart and it opened a can of worms. The gun’s in my hand and I know it looks bad, but believe me I’m innocent.” – Mclusky While the next episode of Madam Secretary buffers on terrible hotel internet, I (the other other white meat) thought I’d pop in […]

Now, Andy did you hear about this one?

We drank a toast to innocence, we drank a toast to now. We tried to reach beyond the emptiness but neither one knew how. – Kiki and Herb Well I hope you all ended your 2017 with a bang.  Mine went out on a long-haul flight crying so hard at a French AIDS drama that […]

We need to stop sacrificing women on the altar of deeply mediocre men (ISBA edition)

(This is not Andrew. I would ask you not to speculate in the comments who S is, this is not a great venue for that.) Kristian Lum just published an essay about her experiences being sexually assaulted at statistics conferences.  You should read the whole thing because it’s important, but there’s a sample paragraph. I […]

Always crashing in the same car

“Hey, remember me?  I’ve been busy working like crazy” – Fever Ray I’m at the Banff International Research Station (BIRS) for the week, which is basically a Canadian version of Disneyland where during coffee breaks a Canadian woman with a rake politely walks around telling elk to “shoo”. The topic of this week’s workshop isn’t […]

Asymptotically we are all dead (Thoughts about the Bernstein-von Mises theorem before and after a Diamanda Galás concert)

They say I did something bad, then why’s it feel so good–Taylor Swift It’s a Sunday afternoon and I’m trying to work myself up to the sort of emotional fortitude where I can survive the Diamanda Galás concert that I was super excited about a few months ago, but now, as I stare down the […]

Teeth are the only bones that show

“I lived in the country where the dead wood aches, in a house made of stone and a thousand mistakes” – The Drones Sometimes it’s cold and grey and Canadian outside and the procrastination hits hard. Sometimes, in those dark moments, one is tempted to fire up the social media and see what’s happening in […]