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Does Benadryl make you senile? Challenges in research communication

Mark Tuttle points to a post, “Common anticholinergic drugs like Benadryl linked to increased dementia risk” by Beverly Merz, Executive Editor, Harvard Women’s Health Watch. Merz writes: In a report published in JAMA Internal Medicine, researchers offers compelling evidence of a link between long-term use of anticholinergic medications like Benadryl and dementia. . . . […]

Fish cannot carry p-values

Following up on our discussion from last week on inference for fisheries, Anders Lamberg writes: Since I first sent you the question, there has been a debate here too. In the discussion you send, there is a debate both about the actual sampling (the mathematics) and about more the practical/biological issues. How accurate can farmed […]

Call for research on California water resources

Patrick Atwater writes: I serve as a project manager of the California Data Collaborative, a coalition of water utilities working together to share data and ensure water reliability. We’ve put together a quick call for ideas on studies into the demand effects of water rates leveraging this unique database. California’s water world is highly fragmented […]

What makes a mathematical formula beautiful?

Hiro Minato pointed me to this paper (hyped here) by Semir Zeki, John Romaya, Dionigi Benincasa, and Michael Atiyah on “The experience of mathematical beauty and its neural correlates,” who report: We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to image the activity in the brains of 15 mathematicians when they viewed mathematical formulae which they […]

Thanks, eBay!

Our recent Stan short course went very well, and we wanted to thank Julia Neznanova and Paul Burt of eBay NYC for giving us the space where we held the class.

More evidence that even top researchers routinely misinterpret p-values

Blake McShane writes: I wanted to write to you about something related to your ongoing posts on replication in psychology as well as your recent post the ASA statement on p-values. In addition to the many problems you and others have documented with the p-value as a measure of evidence (both those computed “honestly” and […]

Killer O

Taggert Brooks points to this excellent news article by George Johnson, who reports: Epidemiologists have long been puzzled by a strange pattern in their data: People living at higher altitudes appear less likely to get lung cancer. . . . The higher you live, the thinner the air, so maybe oxygen is a cause of […]

On deck this week

Mon: Killer O Tues: More evidence that even top researchers routinely misinterpret p-values Wed: What makes a mathematical formula beautiful? Thurs: Fish cannot carry p-values Fri: Does Benadryl make you senile? Challenges in research communication Sat: What recommendations to give when a medical study is not definitive (which of course will happen all the time, […]

“Children seek historical traces of owned objects”

Recently in the sister blog: An object’s mental representation includes not just visible attributes but also its nonvisible history. The present studies tested whether preschoolers seek subtle indicators of an object’s history, such as a mark acquired during its handling. Five studies with 169 children 3–5 years of age and 97 college students found that […]

“The Dark Side of Power Posing”

Shravan points us to this post from Jay Van Bavel a couple years ago. It’s an interesting example because Bavel expresses skepticism about the “power pose” hype but he makes the same general mistake of Carney, Cuddy, Yap, and other researchers in this area in that he overreacts to every bit of noise that’s been […]

When do statistical rules affect drug approval?

Someone writes in: I have MS and take a disease-modifying drug called Copaxone. Sandoz developed a generic version​ of Copaxone​ and filed for FDA approval. Teva, the manufacturer of Copaxone, filed a petition opposing that approval (surprise!). FDA rejected Teva’s petitions and approved the generic. My insurance company encouraged me to switch to the generic. […]

Ioannidis: “Evidence-Based Medicine Has Been Hijacked”

The celebrated medical-research reformer has a new paper (sent to me by Keith O’Rourke; official published version here), where he writes: As EBM [evidence-based medicine] became more influential, it was also hijacked to serve agendas different from what it originally aimed for. Influential randomized trials are largely done by and for the benefit of the […]

Going beyond confidence intervals

Anders Lamberg writes: In an article by Tom Sigfried, Science News, July 3 2014, “Scientists’ grasp of confidence intervals doesn’t inspire confidence” you are cited: “Gelman himself makes the point most clearly, though, that a 95 percent probability that a confidence interval contains the mean refers to repeated sampling, not any one individual interval.” I […]

Bayesian Linear Mixed Models using Stan: A tutorial for psychologists, linguists, and cognitive scientists

This article by Tanner Sorensen, Sven Hohenstein, and Shravan Vasishth might be of interest to some of you.

No, Google will not “sway the presidential election”

Grrr, this is annoying. A piece of exaggerated science reporting hit PPNAS and was promoted in Politico, then Kaiser Fung and I shot it down (“Could Google Rig the 2016 Election? Don’t Believe the Hype”) in our Daily Beast column last September. Then it appeared again this week in a news article in the Christian […]

Moving statistical theory from a “discovery” framework to a “measurement” framework

Avi Adler points to this post by Felix Schönbrodt on “What’s the probability that a significant p-value indicates a true effect?” I’m sympathetic to the goal of better understanding what’s in a p-value (see for example my paper with John Carlin on type M and type S errors) but I really don’t like the framing […]

On deck this week

Mon: Moving statistical theory from a “discovery” framework to a “measurement” framework Tues: Bayesian Linear Mixed Models using Stan: A tutorial for psychologists, linguists, and cognitive scientists Wed: Going beyond confidence intervals Thurs: Ioannidis: “Evidence-Based Medicine Has Been Hijacked” Fri: What’s powdery and comes out of a metallic-green cardboard can? Sat: “The Dark Side of […]

“Pointwise mutual information as test statistics”

Christian Bartels writes: Most of us will probably agree that making good decisions under uncertainty based on limited data is highly important but remains challenging. We have decision theory that provides a framework to reduce risks of decisions under uncertainty with typical frequentist test statistics being examples for controlling errors in absence of prior knowledge. […]

You can post social science papers on the new SocArxiv

I learned about it from this post by Elizabeth Popp Berman. The temporary SocArxiv site is here. It is connected to the Open Science Framework, which we’ve heard a lot about in discussions of preregistration. You can post your papers at SocArxiv right away following these easy steps: Send an email to the following address(es) […]

Bigmilk strikes again