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Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis

Chris Guure writes: I am trying to construct an informative prior by synthesizing or collecting some information from literature (meta-analysis) and then to apply that to a real data set (it is longitudinal data) for over 20 years follow-up. In constructing the prior using the meta-analysis data, the issue of publication bias came up. I […]

Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured

I agree with Uri Simonsohn that you don’t learn much by looking at the distribution of all the p-values that have appeared in some literature. Uri explains: Most p-values reported in most papers are irrelevant for the strategic behavior of interest. Covariates, manipulation checks, main effects in studies testing interactions, etc. Including them we underestimate […]

On deck this week

Mon: Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis Tues: Stan attribution Wed: Cannabis/IQ follow-up: Same old story Thurs: Defining conditional probability Fri: In defense of endless arguments Sat: Emails I never finished reading Sun: BREAKING . . . Sepp Blatter accepted $2M payoff from Dennis Hastert

“Another bad chart for you to criticize”

Stuart Buck sends in this Onion-worthy delight:

Performing design calculations (type M and type S errors) on a routine basis?

Somebody writes writes: I am conducting a survival analysis (median follow up ~10 years) of subjects who enrolled on a prospective, non-randomized clinical trial for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. The data were originally collected for research purposes and specifically to determine PFS and OS of the investigational regimen versus historic controls. The trial has been […]

New paper on psychology replication

The Open Science Collaboration, a team led by psychology researcher Brian Nosek, organized the replication of 100 published psychology experiments. They report: A large portion of replications produced weaker evidence for the original findings despite using materials provided by the original authors, review in advance for methodological fidelity, and high statistical power to detect the […]

A political sociological course on statistics for high school students

Ben Frisch writes: I am designing a semester long non-AP Statistics course for high school juniors and seniors. I am wondering if you had some advice for the design of my class. My currentthinking for the design of the class includes: 0) Brief introduction to R/ R Studio and descriptive statistics and data sheet structure. […]

Vizzy vizzy vizzy viz

Nadia Hassan points me to this post by Matthew Yglesias, who writes: Here’s a very cool data visualization from HowMuch.net that took me a minute to figure out because it’s a little bit unorthodox. The way it works is that it visualizes the entire world’s economic output as a circle. That circle is then subdivided […]

“Can you change your Bayesian prior?”

Deborah Mayo writes: I’m very curious as to how you would answer this for subjective Bayesians, at least. I found this section of my book showed various positions, not in agreement. I responded on her blog: As we discuss in BDA and elsewhere, one can think of one’s statistical model, at any point in time, […]

“The belief was so strong that it trumped the evidence before them.”

I was reading Palko on the 5 cent cup of coffee and spotted this: We’ve previously talked about bloggers trying to live on a food stamp budget for a week (yeah, that’s a thing). One of the many odd recurring elements of these post is a litany of complaints about life without caffeine because… I had already understood […]

On deck this week

Mon: “The belief was so strong that it trumped the evidence before them.” Tues: “Can you change your Bayesian prior?” Wed: How to analyze hierarchical survey data with post-stratification? Thurs: A political sociological course on statistics for high school students Fri: Questions about data transplanted in kidney study Sat: Performing design calculations (type M and […]

We provide a service

A friend writes: I got the attached solicitation [see below], and Google found me your blog post on the topic. Thank you for quickly explaining what’s going on here! As far as I can see, they’ve removed the mention of payment from this first contact message – so they’re learning! But also they have enough […]

Plaig! (non-Wegman edition)

Mark Vallen writes (link from here): What initially disturbed me about the art of Shepard Fairey is that it displays none of the line, modeling and other idiosyncrasies that reveal an artist’s unique personal style. His imagery appears as though it’s xeroxed or run through some computer graphics program; that is to say, it is […]

That was easy

This came in the email from Tom Kertscher: Are you available this afternoon or Wednesday to talk about a fact-check article I’m doing on Gov. Scott Walker’s statement that Wisconsin is a “blue” state? I’m aware, of course, that Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each election since 1988. But I’d like […]

Aahhhhh, young people!

Amusingly statistically illiterate headline from Slate: “Apple Notices That Basically Half the Population Menstruates.” Ummmm, let’s do a quick calculation: 50 – 12 = 38. If you assume the average woman lives to be 80, then the proportion of the population who is menstruating is approximately .52*38/80 = .247. 25% is hardly “basically half”! But […]

Data-analysis assignments for BDA class?

In my Bayesian data analysis class this fall, I’m planning on doing some lecturing and class discussion, but the core of the course will be weekly data-analysis assignments where they do applied statistics using Stan (to fit models) and R (to pre-process the data and post-process the inferences). So, I need a bunch of examples. […]

“Soylent 1.5” < black beans and yoghurt

Mark Palko quotes Justin Fox: On Monday, software engineer Rob Rhinehart published an account of his new life without alternating electrical current — which he has undertaken because generating that current “produces 32 percent of all greenhouse gases, more than any other economic sector.” Connection to the power grid isn’t all Rhinehart has given up. […]

Macartan Humphreys on the Worm Wars

My Columbia political science colleague shares “What Has Been Learned from the Deworming Replications: A Nonpartisan View”: Last month there was another battle in a dispute between economists and epidemiologists over the merits of mass deworming.1 In brief, economists claim there is clear evidence that cheap deworming interventions have large effects on welfare via increased […]

My 2 classes this fall

Stat 6103, Bayesian Data Analysis Modern Bayesian methods offer an amazing toolbox for solving science and engineering problems. We will go through the book Bayesian Data Analysis and do applied statistical modeling using Stan, using R (or Python or Julia if you prefer) to preprocess the data and postprocess the analysis. We will also discuss […]

On deck this week

Mon: My 2 classes this fall Tues: “Soylent 1.5” < black beans and yoghurt Wed: 0.05 is a joke Thurs: Data-analysis assignments for BDA class Fri: Aahhhhh, young people! Sat: Plaig! (non-Wegman edition) Sun: We provide a service