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Improv

I like this new thing of lecturing improv. I feel that it helps the audience stay focused, as they have to keep the structure of the talk in their heads while it’s happening. Also it enforces more logic in my own presentation, as I’m continually looping back to remind myself and the audience how each […]

Exposure to Stan has changed my defaults: a non-haiku

Now when I look at my old R code, it looks really weird because there are no semicolons Each line of code just looks incomplete As if I were writing my sentences like this Whassup with that, huh Also can I please no longer do <- I much prefer = Please

Is Rigor Contagious? (my talk next Monday 4:15pm at Columbia)

Is Rigor Contagious? Much of the theory and practice of statistics and econometrics is characterized by a toxic mixture of rigor and sloppiness. Methods are justified based on seemingly pure principles that can’t survive reality. Examples of these principles include random sampling, unbiased estimation, hypothesis testing, Bayesian inference, and causal identification. Examples of uncomfortable reality […]

Note to Deborah Mayo

I have a post coming on 2 Mar on preregistration that I think you’ll like. It unifies some ideas regarding statistical design and analysis, and in some ways it’s a follow-up to my Borscht Belt post.

He wants to know what book to read to learn statistics

Tim Gilmour writes: I’m an early 40s guy in Los Angeles, and I’m sort of sending myself back to school, specifically in statistics — not taking classes, just working through things on my own. Though I haven’t really used math much since undergrad, a number of my personal interests (primarily epistemology) would be much better […]

Eurostat microdata conference

Heike Wirth writes:

Division of labor and a Pizzagate solution

I firmly believe that the general principles of social science can improve our understanding of the world. Today I want to talk about two principles—division of labor from economics, and roles from sociology—and their relevance to the Pizzagate scandal involving Brian Wansink, the Cornell University business school professor and self-described “world-renowned eating behavior expert for […]

Cloak and dagger

Elan B. writes: I saw this JAMA Pediatrics article [by Julia Raifman, Ellen Moscoe, and S. Bryn Austin] getting a lot of press for claiming that LGBT suicide attempts went down 14% after gay marriage was legalized. The heart of the study is comparing suicide attempt rates (in last 12 months) before and after exposure — gay marriage legalization […]

Clay pigeon

Sam Harper writes: Not that you are collecting these kinds of things, but I wanted to point to (yet) another benefit of the American Economic Association’s requirement of including replication datasets (unless there are confidentiality constraints) and code in order to publish in most of their journals—certainly for the top-tier ones like Am Econ Review: […]

Looking for rigor in all the wrong places (my talk this Thursday in the Columbia economics department)

Looking for Rigor in All the Wrong Places What do the following ideas and practices have in common: unbiased estimation, statistical significance, insistence on random sampling, and avoidance of prior information? All have been embraced as ways of enforcing rigor but all have backfired and led to sloppy analyses and erroneous inferences. We discuss these […]

Unethical behavior vs. being a bad guy

I happened to come across this article and it reminded me of the general point that it’s possible to behave unethically without being a “bad guy.” The story in question involves some scientists who did some experiments about thirty years ago on the biological effects of low-frequency magnetic fields. They published their results in a […]

Should the Problems with Polls Make Us Worry about the Quality of Health Surveys? (my talk at CDC tomorrow)

My talk this Thursday at CDC, Tuesday, February 21, 2017, 12:00 noon, 2400 Century Center, Room 1015C: Should the Problems with Polls Make Us Worry about the Quality of Health Surveys? Response rates in public opinion polls have been steadily declining for more than half a century and are currently heading toward the 0% mark. […]

Blind Spot

X pointed me to this news article reporting an increase in death rate among young adults in the United States: Selon une enquête publiée le 26 janvier par la revue scientifique The Lancet, le taux de mortalité des jeunes Américains âgés de 25 à 35 ans a connu une progression entre 1999 et 2014, alors […]

Accessing the contents of a stanfit object

I was just needing this. Then, lo and behold, I found it on the web. It’s credited to Stan Development Team but I assume it was written by Ben and Jonah. Good to have this all in one place.

ComSciCon: Science Communication Workshop for Graduate Students

Nathan Sanders writes:

“Luckily, medicine is a practice that ignores the requirements of science in favor of patient care.”

Javier Benitez writes: This is a paragraph from Kathryn Montgomery’s book, How Doctors Think: If medicine were practiced as if it were a science, even a probabilistic science, my daughter’s breast cancer might never have been diagnosed in time. At 28, she was quite literally off the charts, far too young, an unlikely patient who […]

Pizzagate and Kahneman, two great flavors etc.

1. The pizzagate story (of Brian Wansink, the Cornell University business school professor and self-described “world-renowned eating behavior expert for over 25 years”) keeps developing. Last week someone forwarded me an email from the deputy dean of the Cornell business school regarding concerns about some of Wansink’s work. This person asked me to post the […]

Vine regression?

Jeremy Neufeld writes: I’m an undergraduate student at the University of Maryland and I was recently referred to this paper (Vine Regression, by Roger Cooke, Harry Joe, and Bo Chang), also an accompanying summary blog post by the main author) as potentially useful in policy analysis. With the big claims it makes, I am not […]

Krzysztof Sakrejda speaks in NYC on Bayesian hierarchical survival-type model for Dengue infection

Daniel writes: Krzysztof Sakrejda is giving a cool talk next Tues 5:30-7pm downtown on a survival model for Dengue infection using Stan. If you’re interested, please register asap. Google is asking for the names for security by tomorrow morning.

Workshop on German national educational panel study

Jutta von Maurice of the Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories in Germany writes: In August this year, we plan to hold a user workshop in New York. We have data on educational processes and competence development from early childhood till late adulthood (n=60.000) and these data might be of special interest for international comparisons. Within […]