Skip to content
Archive of entries posted by

“Developers Who Use Spaces Make More Money Than Those Who Use Tabs”

Rudy Malka writes: I think you’ll enjoy this nice piece of pop regression by David Robinson: developers who use spaces make more money than those who use tabs. I’d like to know your opinion about it. At the above link, Robinson discusses a survey that allows him to compare salaries of software developers who use […]

Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences

Jamie Druckman writes: Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences (TESS) is an NSF-funded initiative. Investigators propose survey experiments to be fielded using a nationally representative Internet platform via NORC’s AmeriSpeak® Panel (see http:/tessexperiments.org for more information). In an effort to enable younger scholars to field larger-scale studies than what TESS normally conducts, we are pleased to announce a Special […]

After Peptidegate, a proposed new slogan for PPNAS. And, as a bonus, a fun little graphics project.

Someone pointed me to this post by “Neuroskeptic”: A new paper in the prestigious journal PNAS contains a rather glaring blooper. . . . right there in the abstract, which states that “three neuropeptides (β-endorphin, oxytocin, and dopamine) play particularly important roles” in human sociality. But dopamine is not a neuropeptide. Neither are serotonin or […]

On deck through the rest of the year (and a few to begin 2018)

Here they are. I love seeing all the titles lined up in one place; it’s like a big beautiful poem about statistics: After Peptidegate, a proposed new slogan for PPNAS. And, as a bonus, a fun little graphics project. “Developers Who Use Spaces Make More Money Than Those Who Use Tabs” Question about the secret […]

Not everyone’s aware of falsificationist Bayes

Stephen Martin writes: Daniel Lakens recently blogged about philosophies of science and how they relate to statistical philosophies. I thought it may be of interest to you. In particular, this statement: From a scientific realism perspective, Bayes Factors or Bayesian posteriors do not provide an answer to the main question of interest, which is the […]

Breaking the dataset into little pieces and putting it back together again

Alex Konkel writes: I was a little surprised that your blog post with the three smaller studies versus one larger study question received so many comments, and also that so many people seemed to come down on the side of three smaller studies. I understand that Stephen’s framing led to some confusion as well as […]

Don’t say “improper prior.” Say “non-generative model.”

[cat picture] In Bayesian Data Analysis, we write, “In general, we call a prior density p(θ) proper if it does not depend on data and integrates to 1.” This was a step forward from the usual understanding which is that a prior density is improper if an infinite integral. But I’m not so thrilled with […]

Where’d the $2500 come from?

Brad Buchsbaum writes: Sometimes I read the New York Times “Well” articles on science and health. It’s a mixed bag, sometimes it’s quite good and sometimes not. I came across this yesterday: What’s the Value of Exercise? $2,500 For people still struggling to make time for exercise, a new study offers a strong incentive: You’ll […]

SPEED: Parallelizing Stan using the Message Passing Interface (MPI)

Sebastian Weber writes: Bayesian inference has to overcome tough computational challenges and thanks to Stan we now have a scalable MCMC sampler available. For a Stan model running NUTS, the computational cost is dominated by gradient calculations of the model log-density as a function of the parameters. While NUTS is scalable to huge parameter spaces, […]

Pizzagate gets even more ridiculous: “Either they did not read their own previous pizza buffet study, or they do not consider it to be part of the literature . . . in the later study they again found the exact opposite, but did not comment on the discrepancy.”

Background Several months ago, Jordan Anaya​, Tim van der Zee, and Nick Brown reported that they’d uncovered 150 errors in 4 papers published by Brian Wansink, a Cornell University business school professor and who describes himself as a “world-renowned eating behavior expert for over 25 years.” 150 errors is pretty bad! I make mistakes myself […]

Ride a Crooked Mile

Joachim Krueger writes: As many of us rely (in part) on p values when trying to make sense of the data, I am sending a link to a paper Patrick Heck and I published in Frontiers in Psychology. The goal of this work is not to fan the flames of the already overheated debate, but […]

Kaiser Fung’s data analysis bootcamp

Kaiser Fung announces a new educational venture he’s created, a bootcamp (12-week full-time in-person program with a curriculum) of short courses with a goal of getting people their first job in an analytics role for a business unit (not engineering or software development, so he is not competing directly with MS Data Science or data […]

Statistical Challenges of Survey Sampling and Big Data (my remote talk in Bologna this Thurs, 15 June, 4:15pm)

Statistical Challenges of Survey Sampling and Big Data Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University, New York Big Data need Big Model. Big Data are typically convenience samples, not random samples; observational comparisons, not controlled experiments; available data, not measurements designed for a particular study. As a result, it is […]

Criminology corner: Type M error might explain Weisburd’s Paradox

[silly cartoon found by googling *cat burglar*] Torbjørn Skardhamar, Mikko Aaltonen, and I wrote this article to appear in the Journal of Quantitative Criminology: Simple calculations seem to show that larger studies should have higher statistical power, but empirical meta-analyses of published work in criminology have found zero or weak correlations between sample size and […]

PhD student fellowship opportunity! in Belgium! to work with us! on the multiverse and other projects on improving the reproducibility of psychological research!!!

[image of Jip and Janneke dancing with a cat] Wolf Vanpaemel and Francis Tuerlinckx write: We at the Quantitative Psychology and Individual Differences, KU Leuven, Belgium are looking for a PhD candidate. The goal of the PhD research is to develop and apply novel methodologies to increase the reproducibility of psychological science. More information can […]

Why I’m not participating in the Transparent Psi Project

I received the following email from psychology researcher Zoltan Kekecs: I would like to ask you to participate in the establishment of the expert consensus design of a large scale fully transparent replication of Bem’s (2011) ‘Feeling the future’ Experiment 1. Our initiative is called the ‘Transparent Psi Project’. [https://osf.io/jk2zf/wiki/home/] Our aim is to develop […]

Financial anomalies are contingent on being unknown

Jonathan Falk points us to this article by Kewei Hou, Chen Xue, and Lu Zhang, who write: In retrospect, the anomalies literature is a prime target for p-hacking. First, for decades, the literature is purely empirical in nature, with little theoretical guidance. Second, with trillions of dollars invested in anomalies-based strategies in the U.S.market alone, […]

UK election summary

The Conservative party, led by Theresa May, defeated the Labour party, led by Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservative party got 42% of the vote, Labour got 40% of the vote, and all the other parties received 18% between them. The Conservatives ended up with 51.5% of the two-party vote, just a bit less than Hillary Clinton’s […]

The (Lance) Armstrong Principle

If you push people to promise more than they can deliver, they’re motivated to cheat.

“Bombshell” statistical evidence for research misconduct, and what to do about it?

Someone pointed me to this post by Nick Brown discussing a recent article by John Carlisle regarding scientific misconduct. Here’s Brown: [Carlisle] claims that he has found statistical evidence that a surprisingly high proportion of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) contain data patterns that cannot have arisen by chance. . . . the implication is that […]