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“The Statistical Crisis in Science”: My talk this Thurs at the Harvard psychology department

Noon Thursday, January 29, 2015, in William James Hall 765: The Statistical Crisis in Science Andrew Gelman, Dept of Statistics and Dept of Political Science, Columbia University Top journals in psychology routinely publish ridiculous, scientifically implausible claims, justified based on “p < 0.05.” And this in turn calls into question all sorts of more plausible, […]

The (hypothetical) phase diagram of a statistical or computational method

So here’s the deal. You have a new idea, call it method C, and you try it out on problems X, Y, and Z and it works well—it destroys the existing methods A and B. And then you publish a paper with the pithy title, Method C Wins. And, hey, since we’re fantasizing here anyway, […]

On deck this week

Mon: The (hypothetical) phase diagram of a statistical or computational method Tues: “It is perhaps merely an accident of history that skeptics and subjectivists alike strain on the gnat of the prior distribution while swallowing the camel that is the likelihood” Wed: Six quick tips to improve your regression modeling Thurs: “Another bad chart for […]

Tell me what you don’t know

We’ll ask an expert, or even a student, to “tell me what you know” about some topic. But now I’m thinking it makes more sense to ask people to tell us what they don’t know. Why? Consider your understanding of a particular topic to be divided into three parts: 1. What you know. 2. What […]

Postdoc opportunity here, with us (Jennifer Hill, Marc Scott, and me)! On quantitative education research!!

Hop the Q-TRAIN: that is, the Quantitative Training Program, a postdoctoral research program supervised by Jennifer Hill, Marc Scott, and myself, and funded by the Institute for Education Sciences. As many of you are aware, education research is both important and challenging. And, on the technical level, we’re working on problems in Bayesian inference, multilevel […]

“What then should we teach about hypothesis testing?”

Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes in: Last week, I was looking forward to a blog post titled “Why continue to teach and use hypothesis testing?” I presume that this scheduled post merely became preempted by more timely posts. But I am still interested in reading the exchange that will follow. My feeling is […]

What’s the point of the margin of error?

So . . . the scheduled debate on using margin of error with non-probability panels never happened. We got it started but there was some problem with the webinar software and nobody put the participants could hear anything. The 5 minutes of conversation we did have was pretty good, though. I was impressed. The webinar […]

Patience and research

I’m going to follow up on a recent post of Thomas Basbøll and argue that patience is an important, and I think under-appreciated, practice in research. This is an odd post for me to write because I’m usually not a patient person. In some ways, though, and surprising as it may sound, blogging is a […]

Debate on using margin of error with non-probability panels

Tomorrow (Thurs 22 Jan) at 2pm, I’m participating (along with Jane Tang, John Bremer, Nancy Brigham, and Steve Mossup) on an online discussion, moderated by Annie Pettit, on the above topic. Here’s the description: Most marketing researchers know that using Margin of Error with convenience samples, non-probability samples, and online research panels is inappropriate. However, […]

High risk, low return

This one is just too good not to share. I came across it via a link from Retraction Watch. Director of Paris journalism school suspended for plagiarism: Executive director of journalism school at Sciences-Po university suspended while the university investigates accusations she was plagiarising other people’s articles for columns in the Huffington Post . . […]